Comments on: Bullish Signs, The Fear Index, Looking For Bottom http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/ Sourcing & Trading Intelligence for Global Metals Markets Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:39:20 +0100 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Aluminum Prices Heading Up? http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4670 Aluminum Prices Heading Up? Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:00:51 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4670 [...] Volatility Index rose 13.59 percent to 52.65, according to Forbes. We covered this index in a previous post last [...] [...] Volatility Index rose 13.59 percent to 52.65, according to Forbes. We covered this index in a previous post last [...]

]]> By: What-if Demand Scenarios on Long Term Metals Consumption - Part Two http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4599 What-if Demand Scenarios on Long Term Metals Consumption - Part Two Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:05:43 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4599 [...] we may be inching closer to bottom, we believe many firms have tried to retain labor, particularly in the early stages of the [...] [...] we may be inching closer to bottom, we believe many firms have tried to retain labor, particularly in the early stages of the [...]

]]> By: ISM Numbers: Sunny Side Up? http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4590 ISM Numbers: Sunny Side Up? Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:00:58 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4590 [...] indicate when we've reached bottom. Take these ISM numbers then along with this earlier analysis to watch for signs of stabilization. And though I prefer my eggs over hard, I'm not [...] [...] indicate when we’ve reached bottom. Take these ISM numbers then along with this earlier analysis to watch for signs of stabilization. And though I prefer my eggs over hard, I’m not [...]

]]> By: admin http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4290 admin Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:17:58 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4290 Hi LP, go for it. If you can weave your angle looking at the 3 month aluminum LME great, but if not, don't worry. Please send your post to my attention. lreisman (at) aptiumglobal (dot) com. We're looking forward to it! Hi LP, go for it. If you can weave your angle looking at the 3 month aluminum LME great, but if not, don’t worry. Please send your post to my attention. lreisman (at) aptiumglobal (dot) com. We’re looking forward to it!

]]> By: LP http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4286 LP Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:27:34 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4286 Unlike you guys, I'm only familiar with this subject matter from a market perspective. I actually wouldn't mind guest positing but it would have to be centered around the Futures markets and trends in the economic indicators. If that's ok with you? Unlike you guys, I’m only familiar with this subject matter from a market perspective. I actually wouldn’t mind guest positing but it would have to be centered around the Futures markets and trends in the economic indicators. If that’s ok with you?

]]> By: admin http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4230 admin Thu, 26 Feb 2009 19:33:47 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4230 Lloyd, great comments! We did a posting earlier this week on the predictions of Roubini, Faber etc and totally concur with your commentary. And you are probably right...we have a little more to go down before we reach bottom though we are seeing a few early indicators in certain sectors. I feel like we've had 7-8 years of rich desserts, too much meat, little exercise and general unhealthy habits. I view this like a diet. It's time to skinny down, remove excesses etc. And once the free-fall stops, the sun will again shine as you say and we'll be the better for it! Would you like to guest post for us?? :) Lloyd, great comments! We did a posting earlier this week on the predictions of Roubini, Faber etc and totally concur with your commentary. And you are probably right…we have a little more to go down before we reach bottom though we are seeing a few early indicators in certain sectors. I feel like we’ve had 7-8 years of rich desserts, too much meat, little exercise and general unhealthy habits. I view this like a diet. It’s time to skinny down, remove excesses etc. And once the free-fall stops, the sun will again shine as you say and we’ll be the better for it! Would you like to guest post for us?? :)

]]> By: LP http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/comment-page-1/#comment-4215 LP Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:47:07 +0000 http://agmetalminer.com/2009/02/26/bullish-signs-the-fear-index-looking-for-bottom/#comment-4215 The problem here is that while the VIX is headed down, believe it or not, there is still too much optimism in the markets (not on main street). My biggest fear is that people who predicted this disaster Roubini, Mark Faber, John Mauldin still believe that there is further downside in the market. While the markets are way oversold on both a monthly, Weekly and Daily time frame, it doesn't mean that we will not see new lows in 6 months. John Mauldin calculated a bottom of around 600 - 650ish on the S&P with a remote possibility it may reach 500 (overshooting on the downside). These numbers are based on historical PEs that mark major bear market bottoms of around 13. Due the steep drop in earnings, PEs are around 30 based on a $45 per share earnings on the S&P 500 (current estimates are for around $65 a share). Those are psychologically scary number, but they will help create a solid bottom. Robert Shiller developed the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE). According to him we still have a little bit more to go. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/shiller-stocks-not-yet-cheap-enough-for-me/ Also, Shiller thinks housing prices will drop another 10 - 20% percent. Mark Faber is too depressing to talk about. Jim Rodgers is clown that is touting the end of the USA to help boost his own private interests. However, Roubini who predicted this, thinks that there might be another 1 trillion in losses for the banks before the bottom. What will that do for credit lines? He predicted 1.5 trillion in losses when the talking heads on the street said 300 billion at most. Not to mention joblessness will lead to tighter spending habits which will lead to more joblessness. Now that's all the bad stuff. The good thing is that the earth will still stand, the sun will rise and the future will be brighter when we get rid of these excesses. So it's imperative that business think strategically, hedge their commodities, become lean and efficient and get the folks at Metal Miner to help them with their purchases, forecasts and demand management :) This is a great opportunity for business that have cash and can think strategically. The problem here is that while the VIX is headed down, believe it or not, there is still too much optimism in the markets (not on main street). My biggest fear is that people who predicted this disaster Roubini, Mark Faber, John Mauldin still believe that there is further downside in the market. While the markets are way oversold on both a monthly, Weekly and Daily time frame, it doesn’t mean that we will not see new lows in 6 months.

John Mauldin calculated a bottom of around 600 – 650ish on the S&P with a remote possibility it may reach 500 (overshooting on the downside). These numbers are based on historical PEs that mark major bear market bottoms of around 13. Due the steep drop in earnings, PEs are around 30 based on a $45 per share earnings on the S&P 500 (current estimates are for around $65 a share). Those are psychologically scary number, but they will help create a solid bottom.

Robert Shiller developed the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE). According to him we still have a little bit more to go. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/shiller-stocks-not-yet-cheap-enough-for-me/

Also, Shiller thinks housing prices will drop another 10 – 20% percent.

Mark Faber is too depressing to talk about. Jim Rodgers is clown that is touting the end of the USA to help boost his own private interests.

However, Roubini who predicted this, thinks that there might be another 1 trillion in losses for the banks before the bottom. What will that do for credit lines? He predicted 1.5 trillion in losses when the talking heads on the street said 300 billion at most.

Not to mention joblessness will lead to tighter spending habits which will lead to more joblessness.

Now that’s all the bad stuff. The good thing is that the earth will still stand, the sun will rise and the future will be brighter when we get rid of these excesses.

So it’s imperative that business think strategically, hedge their commodities, become lean and efficient and get the folks at Metal Miner to help them with their purchases, forecasts and demand management :) This is a great opportunity for business that have cash and can think strategically.

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