ATI Exits GOES Business, AK Steel Last US GOES Producer

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Grain-oriented electrical steel M3 prices rose by about 3% this past month.

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Coincidentally, Allegheny Technologies, Inc. announced that it would now permanently idle its Midland, Pa. and Bagdad in Gilpin, Pa. facilities, thus exiting some commodity stainless steel markets as well as the GOES market entirely.

The closures — combined with new labor agreements, rightsizing plans and defined benefit retirement plans closed off to new employees — will help ATI improve its cost structure. ATI’s flat-rolled products division is expected to return to profitability in 2017 according to the most recent earnings announcement.

GOES_Chart_November_2016_FNL

And though these ATI plants have been idled since the Spring of this year, it now appears certain that the U.S. will have only one remaining GOES producer: AK Steel.

Similar cost reduction themes played out at the most recent AK Steel earnings call on October 25, “The improved product mix, higher average selling price per ton, improved carbon steel market prices, focus on cost reductions and lower raw material costs contributed to the 31% increase in adjusted EBITDA.”

In terms of the improved carbon steel market, we noted that non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise throughout October, confirming a bull market. Steel price declines have started to slow and, in fact, cold-rolled coil prices notched up $1/st this week. Though this appears insignificant, it demonstrates that steel prices may have found a price floor. In addition, the gap between domestic and international CRC prices has narrowed.

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Although GOES prices tend to move somewhat independently from other non-ferrous and ferrous metals, the fact that non-ferrous metals have moved in a bullish direction and steel prices also appear to be finding a floor means that, in the near term, we would not expect to see any dramatic GOES M3 price declines.

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