Rising Chinese Semi-Finished Product Exports Hold Threat for Aluminum Price

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The rising trend of aluminum processors seeking protection from Chinese imports may be just the beginning if a recent Reuters article is correct.

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Encouraged by a growing delta between the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum price quotations, China’s aluminum makers are expected to step up exports in coming months, aided and abetted by a healthier global manufacturing climate and declining world aluminum stockpiles, the article explains.

Should this prove right, higher exports of semi-manufactured aluminum products would depress prices on both the LME and processors conversion premiums in the rest of the world. That would be bad news for producers, but good news for consumers who have been experiencing rising prices of both the underlying LME and conversion premiums for the last six months.

Chinese exports of semi-finished aluminum products fell last year as both LME and SHFE prices collapsed but production has rebounded more than 20% during the first two months of this year as the rising LME has made exports more profitable for Chinese producers benefiting from a relatively weaker SHFE domestic price. According to Goldman Sachs, the profitability of China’s semis exports has jumped 20% this year, encouraging the surge in exports we have seen in Q1 and portending a further increase in the months ahead.

How long the increase in exports is likely to last, and therefore how persistent the negative impact it will have on prices, remains to be seen. Despite the anticipation of rising exports, many still think the surge could be short-lived. Last month, Beijing ordered aluminum producers in 28 cities to slash output by 30% during winter months to limit coal use and curb pollution. In the mean-time, those producers are pumping out every ton they can adding to domestic availability, inventories and depressing the SHFE price. Come autumn, however, if cutbacks are enforced and the physical market tightens that surplus could turn to deficit and prices could rise. In which case exports will become less attractive and the tap will be turned off.

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This isn’t the first time the global aluminum market will be dancing to China’s tune. Consumers could do well to use a dip in prices this summer to cover forward for what may be a winter in which prices rebound.

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