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Tin prices hit $20,459 a metric ton to begin the week, marking its highest point in nearly two months due in part to concern over shortages on the London Metal Exchange following cancelled warrants. According to a report from Reuters, those shortages grew to nearly 50% of LME stocks. Tin has been riding a high...
Tin Drivers [caption id="attachment_70211" align="alignright" width="200"] Want a short-term buying strategy for tin? Check out our FREE June Buying Outlook report![/caption] 1. Dollar to Euro exchange rate 2. Chinese tin ore imports 3. Indonesian export quantities 4. Global production Market Commentary Tin remains the “biggest loser” of all the industrial metals this year (with the exception of rare earth metals, currently not covered in this forecast report) falling 21% since the beginning of the year. Supply Glut The feared “Indonesian raw ore export ban” proved inconsequential for tin. In fact, Myanmar has provided ample quantities of tin ore to China and for the first time in 7 years, China has become a net exporter of tin. That development in combination with the bear commodities market in general and the strong dollar, continue to batter tin prices. However, we could see...
While most analyst were calling for an increase in Tin prices this year, we were very skeptical. FREE Download: The Monthly MMI® Report – price trends for 10 metal markets. Despite the tin deficit, we believe that tin has more potential on the downside than on the upside. While the rest of the base metals complex keeps trending downward, it is hard to see tin prices trading above $25,000 per metric ton.
The World Bureau of Metal Statistics' recent monthly bulletin reported that the tin market recorded a narrow deficit of 300 tons during the January to March period with total reported stocks falling 800 tons during January and ended the quarter down 1,100 tons from December 2013. The stock drawdown appears to be a result of the regulations, as tin supplies from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter, have been hit as they force all tin ingot shipments to comply with higher purity rules and to first trade via the Indonesia's Commodities & Derivatives exchange.
Dating back to last year, tin is in a fairly low place. Prices had declined by nearly half compared to 2013, making the metal the worst faring of all the base metals. Surely there is nowhere to go but up, right? For 2016, we've identified the main tin price drivers as: China GDP and PMI Data The dollar to euro exchange rate Myanmar tin mining For a long-term industrial buying strategy for tin, complete with specific support and resistance levels, download your complimentary copy of our 2016 Annual Metals Outlook report! This report also includes commodities markets and industrial metals market analysis, in addition to key price drivers and commentary on aluminum, nickel, lead, copper, zinc and various forms of steel, in addition to tin.
The people of Cornwall in South West England have the twin blessing of living in one of the most beautiful parts of the country, considered by many a vacation destination, and the curse of high unemployment. The area’s remoteness from any centers of commerce or industry have contributed to its unspoiled countryside, but likewise to...
The tin market in London remained tight last month and the underlying problem appears to be a lack of deliverable metal. According to a recent Reuters report from Andy Home, a closer look at China reveals a significant supply of tin registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange, but it previously was hiding behind the country’s...
One word can be used to describe the London tin market, currently: tight. While the low volume of tin on the London Metal Exchange has been an issue for some time now, its tin contract is now showing signs of entering into a period of volatility, according to a recent report from Reuters. The spread closed this week and brought tin to its tightest point thus far in 2016. The reason for the squeeze? In part it's due to Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of tin. Shipments have been declining for the past several years, but that decline intensified in January with a 63% year-over-year drop. Want a short- and medium-term buying outlook for aluminum, copper, tin, lead, zinc, nickel and several forms of steel? Subscribe to our monthly buying outlook reports! This substantial drop off can be attributed to...
Tin prices plunged 9% since the year started, hitting a five-month low. There are two factors driving this decline: Profit taking: Prices rallied near 70% in 2016 and prices need to digest those gains. Speculation that China has removed it’s 10% export duty on refined tin exports. After this decline, we believe buyers can now take advantage to time some purchases. Prices Near Support [caption id="attachment_83180" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Tin prices are trading near key support levels. Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets.com data. [/caption] Technically, the recent price decline seems normal within the context of a bull market. In bull markets, buyers can find good opportunities to buy metal after prices pull back. Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook Tin prices are now nearing a support area where traders will likely lift prices, especially given the ongoing bullish sentiment across the metals...
Tin Drivers: [caption id="attachment_71086" align="alignright" width="200"] Want a short-term buying strategy for tin? Check out our complimentary July Metal Buying Outlook report![/caption] 1. Dollar to Euro exchange rate 2. Indonesian export quantities 3. Chinese tin ore imports 4. Global Production Market Commentary Tin has not had a good year. Prices have fallen 24% year-to-date after falling 15% in 2014. All base metals have fallen this year (and continue to fall) but at least a couple have attempted to show some price strength. Tin has been unable to rally at all for the past 18 months. A sideways market for tin would be a big improvement. Moreover, the Indonesian tin export restrictions have essentially backfired. The limit of 4,500 metric tons per month, set to go into effect in April never happened. In fact, according to Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade, the...
South Crofty, a once prolific tin mine located near Redruth in the UK, has been shut down for nearly 20 years but that soon may change. Full-pocketed foreign investors recently met with local councillors to discuss reopening the tin mine there after it closed in the late '90s due to plummeting tin prices and despite an abundance of natural mineral resources valued in the billions. "There is a fortune down there underground," Councillor Malcolm Moyle told the Western Morning News. "The question is about getting it out as cheaply and efficiently as possible and that is the issue at the moment." Want a short- and medium-term buying outlook for aluminum, copper, tin, lead, zinc, nickel and several forms of steel? Subscribe to our monthly buying outlook reports! Moyle stands apart as the most optimistic booster of tin mining returning to...
Tin prices continue to march higher. Tin is one of the best performers among industrial metals this year, up more than 40% from its January's lows. [caption id="attachment_80353" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Three-month London Metal Exchange tin price. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets.com data.[/caption] The metal continues to rise on a bull narrative of supply shortfall this year. China's Tin Production Falls The Chinese administration began environmental inspection at eight major provinces starting July 19th, leading to smelters in China either suspending or cutting back production. Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook The recommended plant relocations and maintenance operations are expected to keep smelters idle for more than a month in some cases, with many mills not yet clear on possible restart dates. Affected smelters account for some 45% of China's annual tin production, or around 110,000 metric tons of capacity. The cuts...
Tin was the strongest base metal in February. Free Download: The February 2016 MMI Report After hitting a new six-year low in mid-January, the metal has bounced back up like a tennis ball. Indeed, since January 15th tin has risen more than 20% and many would consider this a bull market. This sharp move can be attributed to several factors: [caption id="attachment_77255" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Tin hits a new four-month high. Source: FastMarkets.[/caption] A weaker dollar in February contributed to a price increase across dollar-denominated commodities, including, of course, the industrial metals complex. February's gains come after significant losses in previous months. Low prices lured bargain hunters in February to buy tin. The latest data showed that the decline in Indonesian shipments intensified in January, with a 63% year-over-year drop. Indonesian refiners had begun suspending operations due to weak global prices...
Tin prices recently experienced selling pressure on speculation that China removed it's 10% export duty on refined tin exports. Click Here for Current Metal Prices No official announcement has been made yet and the export duty wasn't referenced in the country's recently released 2017 Exports Commodities Tax Rates Table, leading many experts to conclude that the duty has been scrapped altogether [caption id="attachment_82946" align="aligncenter" width="500"] 3-Month LME Tin Price. Source: MetalMiner analysis of fastmarkets.com data.[/caption] China started to impose the 10% export duty on refined tin in 2008. It has since changed China from a net exporter to a net importer, also helped by the increasing demand for refined tin within China. The removal of this export duty is not a game changer but it will have global significance. With the removal, we would expect a closer alignment between the...
By most people’s reckoning, tin should have been considerably higher today than it was at the start of the year. Indonesia introduced an export ban at the end of last year for a range of non-ferrous ores, including tin concentrates, in addition to requiring exports of refined metal to be first sold via a domestic exchange. FREE Download: The Monthly MMI® Report – price trends for 10 metal markets. Reasonably, as one of the world’s largest producers, the Indonesian government wanted, at least, to see more value-add processing done within the country in an effort to maximize the return from their dwindling reserves.
After trading sideways for nine consecutive months, tin prices finally succumbed. Free Download: New! The January 2016 MMI Report Although other sources were calling for higher prices in 2016, in our monthly and annual outlooks we continued to recommend buying only small quantities. In the face of a rising dollar, China's slowdown and falling commodity markets, tin buyer should only expect downside moves. [caption id="attachment_76258" align="aligncenter" width="500"] Tin breaking down its support level barriers. Source: MetalMiner analysis of FastMarkets.com data.[/caption] Indonesian Regulations In November, Indonesia introduced new rules requiring tin exporters to obtain new “clean and clear” (CnC) certification. Many firms ramped up exports ahead of it. Indonesian exports from January-November dropped by 1.9% compared to the same period last year, a somewhat negligible result. However, exports in December exceeded 10,300 metric tons, whereas December 2015 exports are unlikely to...
The South Crofty tin mine acquisition has finally been completed after initially being announced in March. Various news sources are reporting the Canadian company Strongbow Exploration has acquired 100% interest in Western United Mines Ltd. and Cornish Minerals Ltd. (Bermuda). Want a short- and medium-term buying outlook for aluminum, copper, tin, lead, zinc, nickel and...
The world is not short of tin yet tin prices are still rising. Not short in the total-percent-present-in-the-earth’s crust kind of way, anyway. MetalMiner Price Benchmarking: Current and Historical Prices for the Metals You Buy It is also relatively well distributed: the five largest producing countries are China 35%, Russia 12%, Australia 8%, Indonesia 7% and Brazil 6%, according to Platts. These mines are not in unstable or war-torn regimes. Some mines in places such as Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are less savory, sure, but as a percentage of the whole they are not mission critical to global ore supply. Yet, ore grades are falling and much of what is left will require a progressively higher price to be economically extractable. Falling London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are signalling that real or apparent...
Tin producers would obviously like to think so and recent developments may suggest they have grounds for optimism in 2016. Free Download: Last Chance for the September MMI Report According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) the global tin market recorded a deficit in the first 6 months of the year of 18,500 metric tons. Both refined Asian production and Chinese consumption were down for a number of reasons, but in spite of the deficit the price took a hammering along with the rest of the commodity sector. The Tin Dynamics Chief among the reasons for this battering, it would be easy to say, was a selloff across all metal categories due to the slow down in Chinese growth and fears over the state of the Chinese stock market. Yet, tin has some specific dynamics all its own...
Tin prices saw a boost this week due in part to reduced output from Myanmar, a key producer of the metal. According to a report from Reuters, other base metals including zinc, also climbed this week due in part to a weaker dollar and strong credit data from key consumer China. Want a short- and...