Author Archives: Jeff Yoders

The Federal Reserve is hinting at multiple short-term interest rate increases this year, a sign that the central bank expects the recent economic surge to continue and wants to limit the possible impact of inflation.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Minutes from the Fed’s two-day meeting Jan. 31-Feb. 1 show that the tax cuts and spending proposals floated by the Trump administration continue to loom large over the central bank’s decisions. While the Fed chose to leave its interest rates unchanged at the meeting three weeks ago, investors widely expect two to three more rate hikes this year, perhaps as early as March, as the Fed continues on its path of gradually raising interest rates to combat gathering inflation.

Yet the central bank emphasized that it would adjust the pace of rate increases in line with the economy’s performance.

Fortescue Reports $1.2 Billion Profit

Australia’s Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. reported yesterday a 383% rise in interim net profit to $1.2 billion, surpassing the $319 million in the year-earlier period on the back of a surprise surge in iron ore prices… somehow this still fell short of market expectations.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Analysts had forecast profit for the six months to Dec. 31 of about $1.5 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The Department of Commerce placed preliminary countervailing duties on Turkish steel rebar imports today, the trade case is ongoing.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Countervailing duties are placed on products found by Commerce to have been injuriously subsidized by foreign governments importing said products into the U.S. The definition of a countervailable subsidy is financial assistance from foreign governments that benefits the production of goods from foreign companies and is limited to specific enterprises or industries, or is contingent either upon export performance or upon the use of domestic goods over imported goods.

Commerce calculated a preliminary subsidy rate of 3.47% for the mandatory respondent Habaş Sinai ve Tibbi Gazlar Istihsal Endüstrisi A.Ş. (Habas).

There  an existing countervailing duty on rebar from the Republic of Turkey (79 Fed. Reg. 65,926 (Dep’t Commerce Nov. 6, 2014). This new countervailing duties investigation on rebar from Turkey covers only rebar produced and/or exported by those companies that are excluded from the 2014 Turkey order. Read more

President Donald Trump’s administration is mulling changes to how the U.S. calculates trade deficits. A change could be made that would show more movements of goods between free trade agreement countries, the Wall Street Journal reported recently citing people involved in the discussions.

Benchmark Your Current Price: See How it Stacks Up

The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. exports any goods first imported into the country, such as cars, and then transferred to a third country like Canada or Mexico unchanged, the sources told The Wall Street Journal. These would not be traditional transshipments, generally done to disguise a country of origin, but rather shipments that are manifested to include the country of origin but simply move goods through a trade agreement country.

Economists say that approach would cause trade deficit numbers to go up because it would typically count goods as imports when they come into the country but not count the same goods when they go back out, known as re-exports.

Trump has been highly critical of trade deals including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. By using a metric that widens the trade deficit, it could give him political leverage to make sweeping changes, the newspaper reported.

If the government adopted the new method, the deficit with Mexico would be nearly twice as high.

The effect of such a change would be particularly stark on data involving countries that have free trade deals with the U.S., this person said—and in some cases the new methodology could even change a trade surplus into a trade deficit.

Trump trade officials said the idea is part of an early discussion and that they are examining various options. It is unclear whether the administration would adopt any new approach for measuring trade as part of official government data, or just use the higher deficit calculation to make the case for new trade deals.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

“We’re not even close to a decision on that yet,” Payne Griffin, the deputy chief of staff at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative told the Journal. “We had a meeting with the Commerce Department, and we said, ‘Would it be possible to collect those other statistics?’”

The Journal reported that career government employees at the USTR’s office complied with the request to prepare data using the new methodology but also noted their objections.

The showdown between global copper miner Freeport-McMoran, Inc. and the Indonesian government got a little hotter this week.

MetalMiner Benchmarking: Click Here for Current Metal Prices

Arizona-based Freeport majority-owns the world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia. The company has been trying to get a new permit from the Indonesian government to continue exporting copper concentrates for the last six months. On Monday Freeport said it would not accept terms of a deal the government offered that would allow it to resume shipments of copper concentrate that have been idled since January 12.

One More Year… Then Give Up Your Mine

Friday the Indonesian government offered Freeport a new, one-year deal that would allow the company to continue exports but only if it agrees to new rules requiring it to build a new copper smelter in Indonesia within the next five years and also agree to switch to an operating license, the terms of which would require Freeport to, eventually, give up control of Grasberg.

Kennecott Copper Mine

Open pit copper mines such as Rio Tinto’s Kennecott in Utah could increase production and increase sales if Grasberg stays closed. Source: Adobe Stock/Photofly.

Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson, naturally, turned down that offer and said the company is unwilling to revisit the terms of its 30-year contract to mine at Grasberg, which accounts for about a third of Freeport’s annual copper production and 40 to 50% of its worldwide assets. He also said Freeport would consider going to arbitration if it can’t settle this dispute within 120 days. Read more

Leading Republican lawmakers said over the weekend proposals for a new Trump-administration-backed infrastructure bill could be introduced as early as the coming weeks.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R. Ky.) told reporters he expects to receive “some kind of recommendation on an infrastructure bill, a subject that we frequently handle on a bipartisan basis,” but gave no details or timing.

He has previously voiced concern over adding to budget deficits with a new injection of federal funds for road, bridge and other construction projects like the ones President Barack Obama secured from Congress in 2009, especially after a major highway funding law was enacted about a year ago.

MetalMiner Benchmarking: Click Here for Current Metal Prices

During the campaign, Trump said he would push for a $1 trillion infrastructure program to rebuild roads, bridges, airports and other public works projects. He said he wanted action during the first 100 days of his administration, which now seems unlikely.

This week President Donald Trump began to deliver on his campaign promises to deregulate industry and unshackle American manufacturing, using the Congressional Review Act, a 1996 law that empowers Congress to review, by means of an expedited legislative process, new federal regulations issued by government agencies and, by passage of a joint resolution, to overrule the regulation.

MetalMiner Benchmarking: Click Here for Current Metal Prices

First up, Congress passed a law under the CRA that rolled back an Obama administration rule that would have required oil, gas and mineral extraction companies to disclose payments made to governments. The Securities and Exchange Commission rule never went into effect and exploration companies and industry organizations such as the American Petroleum Institute, said it put natural resource companies at a competitive disadvantage to foreign firms by disclosing too much of their contract terms.

Iron ore mine

Deregulation via the CRA will help minerals mining and exploration. Source: Adobe Stock/nikitos77.

Metals producers and other companies dependent on minerals to make their products generally supported the repeal. Another potent input for the creation of metals is coal and Trump followed up the CRA action by signing a bill that quashed the Office of Surface Mining’s Stream Protection Rule, a regulation to protect waterways from coal mining waste that officials finalized in December. Regulators spent most of Obama’s administration eight years writing the Stream Protection Rule and it was effectively wiped away with the stroke of Trump’s pen thanks to the CRA.

The House has passed several CRA resolutions, and the Senate has so far sent three of them to President Trump so far, but there are at least 10 CRA bills still moving through the House and Senate. Until now, only one CRA resolution had ever been passed and signed into law: the Occupational Health and Safety Administration’s workplace ergonomics rules, in 2001.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

If Trump and the republican Congress continue to use the CRA to roll back rules, they could potently erase much of the regulation that business organizations have said hamstrung them for the last eight years.

Using the CRA to roll back regulations would certainly make it easier for Trump to deliver on his promises of smarter, better regulations for industries such as manufacturing and mining. Using it also helps the Congress keep up a commitment from an early Trump executive order that it must repeal two regulations for every new one. We could see a slew of deregulation actions to allow Congress to “bank” new regulations if it needs to pass a law to, perhaps, create a new definition of what a countervailable subsidy is for companies to petition the Commerce Department to allow it to place duties on foreign imports.

All work has stopped at Freeport-McMoran‘s giant Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, just over a month after the country halted exports of copper concentrate to boost domestic industries.

MetalMiner Benchmarking: Click Here for Current Metal Prices

Freeport had said the suspension would require the mine to slash output by 60% to approximately 70 million pounds of metal per month if it did not get an export permit by mid-February, due to limited storage. A strike at Freeport’s sole domestic taker of copper concentrate, PT Smelting is expected to last at least until March and has limited Freeport’s output options as Grasberg’s storage sites are now full.

Nippon Exec: Chinese Steel Prices Will Hold Firm

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., Japan’s biggest steelmaker, expects steel prices in top consumer China to hold firm at least until its Communist Party congress late this year, amid solid demand that is underpinning coking coal and iron ore markets.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Chinese futures contracts for steel rebar used in construction have already risen 17% in 2017, on top of a gain of more than 60% last year

We recently launched a new product, MetalMiner Benchmark, which is a secure, anonymous and reliable way for you, the buyer, to compare industrial metal prices (or quotes) from North American Suppliers to thousands of transactions made by other firms for the same or similar metals.

The MetalMiner℠ Benchmark application is different than other pricing tools. The MMB database contains prices actually paid or quoted, NOT catalog prices. While there are plenty of “transactional polling sites” out there, most of them simply scrape and compile publicly available information. The MMB database contains millions of specific price points allowing for detailed analysis of your metal spend by type, grade, form, and size (e.g. 3003 H14 .050 x 48” x 120” sheets). The goal is simple: promote price transparency in the marketplace and help you source the materials you need more effectively.

Donald Trump’s November victory ignited the steepest stock market rally from election day to inauguration for a first-term president since John F. Kennedy won the White House in 1960.

MetalMiner Benchmarking: Click Here for Current Metal Prices

The S&P 500 index, a broad measure of the performance of large U.S. companies, climbed 6% since election day. Wall Street has not posted such a strong run from a president’s first-term election win in more than half a century, when the S&P 500 climbed more than 8% after JFK beat then vice-president Richard Nixon.

Stock market performance since election of a new US president. Source: Financial Times.

Over the same time frame, only the advance following Bill Clinton’s second election stands with JFK in topping the Trump run. Additionally, Wednesday’s fifth-straight record-high close for each of the major U.S. equity indexes matches a streak last seen in January 1992. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank even said its manufacturing index soared in February to a 33-year high, in another indication of improving business sentiment in the wake of the Republican election sweep. Read more

President Trump signed a bill to roll back a Dodd-Frank banking reform disclosure requirement that demanded that resource exploration and extraction companies disclose any payments that they might make to foreign governments, the U.S. federal government or other entities in their exploration activities.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Rule 13q-1 adopted by the SEC, would have implemented the resource extraction issuer payment disclosure provisions of Section 1504 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Under the SEC rule, a public company that qualified as a “resource extraction issuer” would have been required to publicly disclose in an annual report on Form SD of its tax return information relating to any single “payment” or series of related “payments” made by the issuer, its subsidiaries or controlled entities of $100,000 or more during the fiscal year covered by the Form SD to a “foreign government” or the U.S. Federal government for the “commercial development of oil, natural gas, or minerals” on a “project”-by-“project” basis.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), who attended the signing Tuesday, said it would be “the first of many Congressional Review Act bills to be signed into law by President Trump.” He said they would “provide relief for Americans hurt by regulations rushed through at the last minute by the Obama administration.”

Supporters of the SEC regulation say it would have provided greater transparency. The SEC said Congress had sought transparency “to help combat global corruption and empower citizens of resource-rich countries to hold their governments accountable.”

The regulation, which never went into effect, was drafted at the direction of the Obama administration in response to directions in the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. The directive was in an amendment backed by Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (D-Md.) and then-Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.).

Click Here for Current Metal Prices

Foes of the regulation, led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute, said the rule would put natural resource companies at a competitive disadvantage to foreign firms by disclosing too much of their contract terms.