Author Archives: Sohrab Darabshaw

The month of August has seen the Indian government slap anti-dumping duties on the import of a variety of steel products from six countries including China, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

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In the first week, the import duty was imposed on hot-rolled steel products, while a few days ago, the duty was enforced on certain cold-rolled flat steel products from different countries to protect the domestic industry from cheap imports.

In the first case, anti-dumping duties $474-557 per metric ton were imposed on hot-rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel from China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia, according to a government notification.

Coiledsteel_585

Imports of coiled steel will be heavily tariffed in India, too. Source: iStock.

The duty will be in force for six months until February 7.

Hot-Rolled Duties

An anti-dumping duty of $474 per ton was imposed on import of hot-rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel of a width up to 2,100 millimeter with a width up to 25 mm from Korea and Japan.

According to an Indian Express report Korean firms affected by this were Hyundai Steel Co. and POSCO. Three Japanese companies — JFE Steel Corp., Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Corp. are also on the list. A similar anti-dumping duty was slapped on imports of similar products from China. Exporters Angang Steel Company Ltd. and Zhangjiagang were among the hardest hit. Imports of the same from Indonesia, Russia and Brazil attracted the $474 per mt duty. Read more

A new space has opened up for India’s scrap metal recycling business. The government has given its go-ahead to a “state-of-the-art” auto shredding and recycling plant, which has been in the pipeline for about a year.

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The automotive scrap shredder/recycler is the result of an agreement signed with the state-run metal scrap trading firm MSTC (formerly Metal Scrap Trade Corporation) and Mahindra Intertrade, a part of the diversified $17.8 billion Mahindra Group. Mahindra, incidentally, is a well-known auto major in India, too.

Potentially Huge Market

India’s scrap market is estimated to be in the range of about $1.8 billion, and most of the scrap required by the country, about 5-6 million metric tons, is imported.

Scrap Recycling Yard

India will soon receive its first state-of-the-art automotive recycling yard. Source: Adobe Stock/Robert Hainer.

In a thriving auto market, such as India’s, there’s no formal disposal method for end of life vehicles right now, thus the new joint venture has a ready-made market. The JV will start off with a single unit, but will soon expand across India. The idea is to save India precious foreign exchange rupees, in addition to creating jobs. Every ton of new steel manufactured from scrap will help save iron ore, coal, electricity and limestone from being produced. Read more

The decision to set up a modern, state-of-the-art auto shredding/recycling plant in India could not have come at a more opportune time. Many Indian provinces, led by New Delhi, are starting to come around to the view that older vehicles, especially those running on diesel, need to be banned.

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Older cars pollute more than the ones that adhere to the India’s latest “Bharat Stage” (pollution control) norms. The Mahindra/MSTC joint-venture is also planned to be able to scrap ships and machines.

India’s National Green Tribunal (NGT) recently asked the New Delhi local government to deregister diesel cars 10 years or older. That’s a large chunk of the approx. 8.5 million cars registered in New Delhi, which would end up being either sold outside New Delhi or totally scrapped.

The number of cars sold in India was expected to grow from 2.2 million vehicles back in 2010 to 10.6 million units by 2020. At present, about 28 million vehicles are said to be over 15 years old and ready for the scrap heap.

India’s Cash for Clunkers

The Indian Government was actively contemplating better policies in the organized and mandatory vehicle recycling business when this project came along. India had the potential to become one of largest car recycling regions, according to SteelMint Events, and the rise of recycling-friendly legislation was one of the topics to be discussed at the Scrap Recycling – Emerging Markets conference to be held in September in New Delhi.

The vehicle scrapping policy is formalized in legislation as the Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernization Plan (V-VMP). The bill is currently in its draft stage but, when passed, it would apply to all vehicles, regardless of engine type, bought on or before March 31, 2005. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) submitted the draft policy to the Ministry of Finance for approval. The government also recently proposed offering consumers an incentive of $375 for any passenger car handed in for scrapping to boost recycling rates.

When the policy is implemented, analysts predict about 28 million older, polluting vehicles will be taken off the roads. So, while automakers moan the NGT’s order on diesel cars in the short term, in the long-term, companies such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. are very happy that the policy means sales of more cars.

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. is India’s largest car maker. It believes the local car market will reach 5 million units in annual sales by 2020, making the country the fourth-largest market in the world, if the V-VMP is passed.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

The automaker’s forecast is in line with the central government’s Auto Mission Plan II that forecasts the passenger vehicle (PV) market to more than triple to 9.4 million units by 2026 from 2.8 million now if the economy grows at an average rate of 5.8% a year. If the economy grows at an average yearly pace of 7.5%, the size of the passenger vehicle market is forecast to rise to 13.4 million units, making it the world’s second-largest after China.

While India’s Tata Steel’s effort to sell its U.K. assets enters its second round of bids, there’s some good news for the company from the other side of the Atlantic.

The provisional government of Quebec in Canada has decided to invest $133 million (C $175 million)  in Tata Steel’s iron ore project in the region between Quebec and Labrador.

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According to an announcement made by Tata Steel Minerals Canada (TSMC), the company’s Canadian subsidiary, it had been awarded the financial contribution to support the development of its Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) Project. The contribution included an equity stake of $95.72 million (C $125 million) through the Capital Mining Hydrocarbons Fund which supported mining activities in the northern region of Québec and a loan of $38.29 million (C $50 million) through Investment Québec.

Canada Supports Iron Ore

Analysts said the equity/loan assistance was aimed at fueling growth in the mining sector in the region and would also create jobs. TSMC, a joint venture, is developing the iron ore project in Quebec. Tata Steel holds a 94% stake in the JV while the remainder is held by the Toronto-listed New Millennium Corporation.

The DSO project involves mining, crushing, washing, screening and drying the run-of-mine ore, and is expected to produce 4.2 million tons of sinter fines and pellet feed a year.

The finished product will be transported to Sept-Îles, Québec, from where it will be shipped to Tata Steel Europe’s steelmaking facilities.

With the Canadian government’s equity infusion in TSMC, Tata Steel’s stake will come down though it’s not yet clear how much. The Quebec Government’s financial package is in line with a similar financial package proposal by the U.K. Government for Tata Steel’s Port Talbot operations, aimed at rescuing the British steel industry.

Port Talbot Still on the Block

Last week, CNBC TV 18 reported that Tata may keep the Port Talbot unit. Quoting unnamed sources, the report claimed Tata Steel is likely to sell off downstream units in Rostherham, Hartlepool and Stocksbridge, instead. Each of these operations have a 100-million-metric-ton production capacity and together employ about 3,000 workers. Management buyout firm Excalibur and Indian-origin businessman Sanjeev Gupta’s Liberty House are said to be in the fray for the assets of the other operations.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

Tata had written down the value of its U.K. steel assets to almost zero and was also exploring a merger of its European business — including its profitable assets in the Netherlands — with German peer ThyssenKrupp.

There’s a quiet battle being fought outside the limelight between India and other steel producing nations over the world’s largest democracy’s protectionist measure, the Minimum Import Price (MIP), introduced in February.

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The MIP, essentially a tariff on imports targeted mainly at neighboring China, is set to expire August 5. While large steelmakers in India are pushing for the continuation of MIP by the government, some member-nations of the World Trade Organization have started to apply pressure to remove the MIP. The MIP on 173 steel items for six months was introduced as a way to curb cheap imports and firm up steel prices in the home market. The MIP ranged from $341 a metric ton to $752/mt depending on which product.

Other Nations Protest the MIP

In a recent meeting of the goods council at the WTO, nine members, including the U.S., the European Union and China, asked India to justify its continued restrictions on imported steel.

There are some who say that if India continues with the MIP after the deadline it could be dragged into dispute proceedings at the WTO by any of the complaining members, although India has consistently maintained it’s done no wrong and the MIP is a general agreement on tariffs and trade-compliant instrument to regulate imports. Almost all steel producing major countries have imposed one form or the other of tariffs or other protectionist measures to curb steel imports. There are also reports here that India could prune the list of 173 steel products and still keep the MIP in effect for most products.

MIP Effect: Imports Fall

In the first quarter of FY17 (India’s fiscal year begins in on April 1) total steel production in India grew by 3.8% year-on-year, while overall steel consumption grew by only 0.3%. In the same period, imports fell by 30.7% year-on-year, according to a new report by rating agency India Rating and Research (Ind-Ra).

According to the agency, the increase in Indian steel production was supported by the MIP policy but was unlikely to continue beyond August after it expires. Since the imposition of the MIP, domestic producers benefited by way of import substitution. Ind-Ra felt the continuation of the industry protection measure beyond August is required to “safeguard the interest of the domestic steel industry, which has shown signs of a recovery in the current fiscal on the back of MIP.”

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

Ind-Ra opined that profitability for most steel producers is likely to remain under pressure due to the newly added capacity. The interest cost and depreciation from these new capacities has now started to impact the income statements and increased both operations and financial leverage for India’s steel industry. For India’s steel companies to see healthy profit generation, capacity utilization levels need to increase significantly.

In the coming years, India will be scouting around for strategic partnerships with multinational mining exploration companies to secure the supply of critical minerals for its defense and manufacturing programs.

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In the opinion of analysts, if the Indian government wants its much-vaunted “Make in India” campaign to be a real success, it has no choice but to do this. Over the coming years, India will need to strategically develop joint partnerships with existing global players to secure assured supply of critical minerals. Read more

The United Nations Environmental Program predicted that between 2007 and 2020, the amount of e-waste exported to India will jump by as much as 500%, and between 200% and 400% in South Africa and China.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

E-waste is an informal name for electronic products nearing the end of their “useful life.” Computers, televisions, VCRs, stereos, copiers, and fax machines are common e-waste products. Processing and recycling them is proving to be a major challenge for Indian authorities. To add to the export of e-waste, recent studies have revealed that about 1.8 million metric tons of e-waste are being generated within India, itself, annually. That figure is likely to climb to 5.2 mmt by 2020 at the predicted annual compounded rate of 30%. But only about 2.5% of this e-waste gets recycled, experts say.

E-waste figured in a major way on the agenda of a huge convention on non-ferrous minerals and metals in India’s steel city of Jamshedpur, last week. The delegates deliberated the challenges posed by the non-ferrous industry including the generation of e-waste. Read more

The decision by a majority of U.K. citizens to leave the European Union (E.U.) has injected a note of worry in business circles in faraway India, one of Great Britain’s former colonies and a nation that trades more than India Pale Ale with it.

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Especially worried are India’s steel and automobile sectors. The anxiety stems from the fact that the U.K. was always seen as an attractive business entry point to the rest of the E.U. It’s favorable tax regime was the other positive factor that encouraged trade between the two nations.

Tata Steel’s Conundrum

But now, with the referendum over, trade bodies such as the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) feel that Brexit could create a lot of uncertainty for India, Inc. After all, Indian companies are the third-largest source of foreign direct investment in the U.K.

This steel plant at Port Talbot in South Wales, U.K., could close if Tata Steel can't find a buyer. Even as steel prices increased last week. Source: Adobe Stock/Petert2

Tata’s steel plant at Port Talbot in South Wales, U.K., could close if Tata Steel can’t find a buyer. Source: Adobe Stock/Petert2

Take Tata Steel for example, the company’s steel products enjoyed free trade with other European countries because Britain was part of the E.U. Now, depending on what type of deal is struck with its former E.U. cohorts, that status will likely be gone, leaving Tata Steel negatively impacted. Not only will it hurt the division’s exports, but it also complicates proposed sale of its U.K. plants. Read more

The Indian government has been taking a number of steps to tackle the serious issue of inflow of cheap steel products from China and other nations.

Free Download: The June 2016 MMI Report

Recently it issued quality control rules that required registration for the manufacture, import and sale of 16 steel products. One of the outcomes of this order was that it would weed out defective and substandard stainless steel used in utensils and kitchen appliances.

The quality control order was issued by the steel ministry in consultation with the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), making it compulsory to hold a BIS certificate. The certificates apply to low-grade stainless steel plates, sheets and strips, especially those used for utensils as well as for low nickel austenitic stainless steel sheet and strips used in kitchen appliances and utensils.

The latest Quality Control Order is applicable to some 25 grades of stainless steel. Incidentally, the QCO mainly covers three Indian Standards including IS 5522, IS 15997 and IS 6911. Grades covered by these three standards are: IS 5522 – 304, 302 & 430; IS 15997 – N1 (Min 1% Nickel), N2 (Min 1.5% Nickel) & N3 (Min 4% Nickel); IS 6911 – 405, 430, 410, 420S1, 420S2, 420S3, 431, 440, 201, 201A, 202, 301, 302, 304S1, 304S2, 309, 310, 316, 316L, 316Ti, 321 & 347.

The order was to be implemented by the producer, domestic or foreign, and not the end user.

Well-Received Order

The order placated a section of domestic steelmakers who were clamoring for a stop to cheap imports. In March, after some intense lobbying by steel players, the Indian government extended safeguard duties on a range of steel products by another two years to protect local steelmakers from cheap imports.

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The move was welcomed by the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA), a trade body representing the stainless steel industry. ISSDA also pointed out that the order will have a minimum impact on the stainless steel utensils market since it does not cover stainless steel containing less than 1% nickel.

ISSDA President N.C. Mathur said the order would ensure competitiveness and growth of India’s manufacturing sector.

Huge inventory levels and increased production are not helping India’s iron ore mining sector.

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According to a recent report by credit rating agency ICRA, India’s iron ore prices are not likely to recover in the near future. On the other hand, steel companies would benefit from this development in the short term. They were likely to enjoy “better profitability” due to improved steel prices in the current year, supported by imposition of minimum import price (MIP) by the government.

Production Up, Prices Down

India’s iron ore production in 2015-16 was at 155 million metric tons, registering an annual growth rate of 23%, ICRA said in a statement. Much of the incremental production in iron ore was because of stepped up mining in the Indian state of Odisha. In the current fiscal, ICRA said, India’s iron ore output could be somewhere in the range of 170-175 mmt.

The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI), on the other hand, was of the view though that the Indian iron ore export mining industry needed tax relief to compete internationally after an absence of approximately four years when mining was largely banned in many Indian states.

Speaking at an iron ore conference in Singapore recently, R.K. Sharma, Secretary-general of FIMI said it would “challenging” to restart some of the mines after they have been shuttered for four years.

According to ICRA Corporate Sector Ratings Senior VP Jayanta Roy, because of the substantial iron ore inventory levels at existing mines and the fact that India’s iron ore production was slated to increase further, domestic iron ore prices are unlikely to recover meaningfully in the near term, which benefits local steel mills.

Post minimum-import-price, Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have seen a sharp increase of about 25% from the lows reached in February 2016, according to ICRA’s quarterly research report on the steel industry. Industry players saw additional gains due to an increase in sales volumes, as imports were likely to reduce in the current year.

Free Download: The May 2016 MMI Report

The MIP is scheduled to expire in the second quarter of the India’s fiscal year (April 1 to March 31), but according to analysts, the present level of international prices and the extension of a safeguard duty by the Indian Government to March 2018, could continue to boost prices and prospects for Indian steel producers.