Automotive

The CEO of a leading Chinese zinc supplier believes the devaluation of the yuan will help manufacturers on the mainland, but possibly not before year’s end. Clara Chan of Lee Kee Group told Reuters: “The depreciation of the yuan will help customers when they get import orders. Obviously it just happened last week so it […]

{ 0 comments }

Electric Vehicles, or EVs, — despite huge hype, state support and billions of dollars of car makers funds — still only represent a tiny proportion of total sales.

Free Sample Report: Our New Monthly Outlook

According to an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) article just 0.4% of an estimated 85 million cars sold worldwide last year were EVs. Numbers are rising, but at least here in Europe even free charging points, free road tax, free or discounted parking and exemption from road, tunnel and ferry charges has not been enough to boost participation.

In the UK, grants of £5,000 ($7,700) per vehicle have helped bring the initially quite high cost down to more accessible levels. Life cycle costs are almost certainly lower than gasoline cars now, yet the largest selling EV in the UK, the Nissan Leaf only just passed 10,000 units, and the Leaf commands 2/3rds of the UK EV market. Growth in percentage terms looks significant as this graph from the EIU shows, with the EU now overtaking the US as the fastest growing major EV market but it also suggests incentives play a big part in persuading buyers to choose EV.

Source: EIU

Source: EIU

Range anxiety understandably seems the most significant hurdle. Petrol-Hybrid EVs are proving more acceptable where the fall back of a petrol engine can give a respectable range of over 400 miles in some cases and new models are getting better all the time. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has been popular this year taking an estimated one-fifth share of the European EV market in the first five months of the year.

It will not go on sale in the US until 2016, the article reports, maybe to give the firm a chance to iron out any bugs before the hit the potentially larger US market. Europe is waiting for Tesla’s new offering, the Model 3 that is reported to be able to cover 200 miles on one charge, compared to the Leaf that manages less than 50, in spite of claims of 100.

Clearly, the technology has some way to go before it attracts a mass market and with governments’ enthusiasm waning – incentives are in many countries being reined back – it could be mass take up remains some way off. Modern diesel engines are managing real returns of over 70 miles per imperial gallon and petrol engines of around 50 mpg, the claims for PHEVs become harder to justify. Pure EVs will still prove popular with city planners for pollution reasons, but headwinds remain for the technology.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the August MMI Report

{ 2 comments }

There was no joy in automotive metals this month as prices retreated again amid ample supply and not enough worldwide demand.

Automotive_Chart_August-2015_FNL

The monthly Automotive MMI® registered a value of 76 in August, a decrease of 7.3% from 82 in July, another all-time low for the index. Before the last two months, its previous low was 85.

Steel Prices Falling

Base metals remain in a bearish market, one that's starting to edge on historic proportions. Also, a glut of imported steel in the US market continues to drive down prices domestically while the lack of demand overseas only exacerbates the problem here.

Three Best Practices for Buying Commodities

US steelmakers have been forced to rely on anti-dumping actions again in hopes of creating some semblance of market equilibrium.

Steel is not the only ingredient in the Automotive MMI and its fall has been helped along liberally by steep falls for aluminum, palladium, platinum and copper.

Vehicle Sales Faltering

At least in the US, sales of automobiles are still strong, too. A sales collapse in China is one of the many effects of the stock market crash and slow economic growth there.

“There’s excessive competition and automakers are building excess capacity, and to raise utilization of the plants, they will engage in excessive selling,” Fumihiko Ike, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, said in reference to the market many are looking at to create global sales increases.

The Chinese market is generally regarded as one that provides higher sales margins to manufacturers and Volkswagen, BMW and other manufacturers are taking on a hit on sales there.

With a continuing metals surplus and only the US end-user market in decent shape, it's difficult to predict a turnaround for the Automotive MMI. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index is hitting new lows as well.

Actual Automotive Metals Prices

For this month's exact prices and trends, log in or sign up below. Or check out our free sample forecast report...

Free Download: Sign Up for Our Monthly Outlook

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

We have often noted the funny ways metals are marketed in the overall media here at MetalMiner. Whether it’s steel being touted for its strength, while alloyed with titanium, or zinc being used to galvanize rods in environments where galvanizing won’t help, the the images of strength, resiliency and luxury certain metals hold benefit the sector as a whole.

{ 0 comments }

Concern in China is rising that June’s 3.4% fall in auto sales, compared to the year before, could be the start of a trend. After two years of consistent growth and high capacity utilization the world’s largest car market is showing signs of fragility.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers quoted in the FT suggests China’s automotive market may be maturing after years of breakneck growth.

{ 0 comments }

MM-IndX_TRENDS_Chart_July-2015_FNL

There’s no reprieve from the bearish metals environment in this month’s MMI Report.

More Analysis: The July Metal Price Forecast

With the exception of the very specialized grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) market and the Renewables MMI®, all of our indexes lost ground in June and could not gain traction amid falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar.

The one index that was steady from last month, which tracks raw material inputs of the renewable energy sector, has been stagnant for two years and, until trends show otherwise, its steadiness is more a measure of a lack of market activity than anything close to a turnaround or a new trend toward increasing prices.

The Stainless MMI is flirting with two-year lows and our Raw Steels index is up against lows not seen in years as well. Weakness in the Chinese stock market has put additional pressure on metals that were already reeling from the effect of the strong dollar. This is bad news for steelmakers, miners, refiners and smelters by itself, but coupled with increased supply in most of the metals we track, it’s become a real deterrent to profitability.

Moreover, both Europe and the US have higher-than-normal inventories of semi-finished products at service centers. Mill lead times remain short suggesting weak demand. Weak demand will continue to place downward pressure on prices.















captcha

{ 0 comments }

Through half of 2015, US auto sales are on track to hit record levels not seen in 15 years. After climbing more than 4% through July annual sales could approach the previous annual record of 17.4 million if they stay on this pace.

Yet, none of that demand seems to be helping automotive metal prices.

Free Download: Last Week for the June MMI Report

As robust as the US automotive market is, it can't entirely make up for sluggish sales elsewhere that are depressing demand for metals such as steel, aluminum and copper and pushing our index further down. Even the exhaust system metals, platinum and palladium, saw a deep dive this month.

Chinese New Car Sales Barely Growing

New car sales grew just 1.2% in China this May. Further complicating matters, is the fact that the nation of 1.37 billion is starting to develop a used car market and it's looking very much like Chinese consumers like paying less for a used car, rather than paying more for a new one. What a shock?

This is, of course, bad news for raw materials suppliers as the massive Chinese auto market only recently transitioned to automobiles being the main form of transportation. Less-metals intensive bicycles and motorbikes had filled that role until recently.

Chinese steel and aluminum manufacturers had been counting on more robust growth from the domestic new car market and a strong used market could stunt the advances many were planning to reap from new car sales.

Bearish Market Hits Home

The monthly Automotive MMI® registered a value of 82 in July, a decrease of 3.5% from 85 in June.

Automotive_Chart_July-2015_FNL

As we have documented liberally, the strong US dollar has created a bearish environment for all metals and automotive inputs are no exception. The steep fall observed this month in palladium, a metal that had previously held our automotive index up, was an example of just how much the bearish market is affecting even metals with strong demand. Palladium hit a two-year low this month and the bottom, subsequently, fell out of an already listing price index.

Copper, zinc and lead also fell significantly.

What This Means for Automotive Metal Buyers

* Get the complete prices every day on the MetalMiner IndX℠

The drama surrounding Greece's debt is compounding the bear market and, while it hasn't yet caused strong currencies such as the dollar to see significant gains, its potential to do so threatens all commodities.
This September: SMU Steel Summit 2015

The Automotive MMI® collects and weights 7 metal price points used in automotive production to provide a unique view into automotive metal trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Automotive MMI® constituent metals and their exact price movements, log in or register below!

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

We recently wrote about platinum prices sinking. Well, palladium seems to be following its sister metal.

In April we noticed that palladium was heading into trouble and it certainly was, only this month the metal dropped 15%, falling to its lowest level in two years.

Palladium spot price since 2012

Palladium spot price since 2012. Source: MetalMiner.

Unlike platinum, palladium finds more application in gasoline engines and is, therefore, more exposed to the Chinese and US markets than to European markets.

Automotive Demand Stalls

Slowing growth in Chinese auto sales may have scared investors away from this precious metal.

Free Webinar: Are You Speculating When You Buy Spot Metals?

Another bearish factor is that supply concerns eased amid signs of recovering mining output this year. Although, there are different opinions on this and some experts are still saying there will be a continuing deficit.

Palladium Follows Platinum

As with platinum, we believe that a main driver has been a stronger dollar which puts pressure on commodities and gives South Africa’s miners an incentive to keep producing as their currency depreciates against the dollar. Meanwhile, it is clear that investors are not pouring money into precious metals and this trend is hurting palladium as well.

Free Download: Latest Metal Price Trends in the June MMI Report

{ 0 comments }

MM-IndX_TRENDS_Chart_June-2015_FNLRemember that bounce we saw in most of the metal prices we track last month? Annnnd it’s gone.

Free Download: MetalMiner’s Top Service Centers Guide

The bearish environment our metals are up against resumed this month as the strong dollar erased nearly all of the gains from May. There were some positive outliers, though, with construction showing growth just as the summer building season begins in the US and the Global Precious Metals MMI was able to hold onto its May gains.

Check out the June MMI Report to get details on the fundamentals of all of the markets we track.















captcha

{ 0 comments }

MetalMiner's basket of industrial metals used by the auto industry, the monthly Automotive MMI®, registered a value of 85 in June, a decrease of 2.3% from 87 in May.

Automotive_Chart_June-2015_FNLAs the chart shows, this move basically undoes May's gains and puts the automotive metals index back where it was in April. The loss nearly erased the 2.4% gain last month as palladium and platinum prices either fell or traded sideways and the other metals tracked in the index weren't really responsible for the recent movement, anyway.

Robust Car/Truck/SUV Sales

While automotive sales remain strong in the US and abroad, those sales are not creating the necessary demand for automotive materials to move the needle this year – even as companies such as Alcoa, Novelis, ArcelorMittal and others invest heavily in automotive aluminum and steel facilities worldwide.

FREE Download: Compare Prices With the May MMI® Report.

US car buyers bought new cars and trucks at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in May, US auto sales data released by the automakers showed. General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Honda reported increases. Toyota, Nissan and Ford saw declines.

Americans bought about 1.63 million new vehicles in May, up 1.6% from about 1.61 million in the same month last year, according to automotive statistics provider Motor Intelligence. Industry forecasts had expected a 1% decline in sales, to 1.59 million, in part because May was one sales-day shorter than it was last year.

May’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate came in at 17.8 million, well past analysts expected 17.3 million.

Steel Inventories Still High

The big drag on the index continues to be the price of steel, which reached another new low this month. Cheap imports and high inventories are to blame in that market, and those high inventories will continue to make the road just as hard to ride for automotive.

Domestic steel producers have filed anti-dumping and countervailing duty petitions against five countries related to corrosion-resistant steel, the type used in automotive applications.

* Get the HDG steel price every day on the MetalMiner IndX℠

The petitions charge that unfairly traded imports of corrosion-resistant steel from China, India, Italy, South Korea and Taiwan are causing material injury to the domestic steel industry. The petitions further charge that significant subsidies have been provided to the foreign producers by the governments of those countries.

It will take months to know if this action produces significant relief of the cheap imports and, even then, the anti-dumping and CVD determinations might not be high enough to have an effect. The end-use automotive market and its much of its material supply chain is intrinsically tied to the steel market.

For exact and complete price trends of the Auto MMI, log in or sign up below!

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |