Articles in Category: Exports

This is part 2 of a 2-part series on scrap recycling in India, check out part 1 if you missed it yesterday.

The overall Indian recycling rate is about 25%. Compare this to the US – which is a net exporter of scrap with recycling rates of 80 – 90% and Europe, which has recycling rates in excess of 70%.

India’s annual scrap consumption is about 21 million metric tons while its imports are about 7 mmt a year, making it the world’s third-largest importer of scrap. A Frost & Sullivan report claimed India’s metal recycling industry had the potential to grow 11.4% per year until 2020 – but that comes with a big rider. Growth can only happen once the import duty and other free trade hurdles have been removed.

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India, incidentally, is perhaps the only country in the world to impose an import tax on steel scrap. This happened 2 years ago. The Metal Recycling Association of India has been on the forefront of a campaign to get the import tax stricken, with the current political administration even agreeing to look at the demand favorably.

So, while semi-finished products can be imported duty-free into the country, there is a 5% import duty on steel scrap, thus impacting the profitability of recyclers.

But the story on aluminum scrap is the exact opposite. India’s aluminum demand has been growing at an annual rate of about 11%, compared to a global growth of 6%. Part of the growth is fueled by imports including of aluminum scrap, especially from China.

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Indian Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently told parliament that the government was considering a request for doubling the duty on aluminum imports to 10%, following representations that imports of aluminum scrap, especially from China, and the metal’s decreasing global prices were adversely impacting the industry in India.

What India Must Do to Increase Scrap Recycling

Essentially, for the Indian recycling sector to get an impetus and turn into a net earner, analysts including Frost & Sullivan, recommended the Indian Government initiate the following:

  • Removal of  the basic scrap import duty
  • Offer Special Economic Zones, the benefits of which will enable industry status for the metal recycling sector
  • Subsidize lending rates which will add more financial muscle in this sector

The CEO of Volkswagen Group stepped down in the wake of the company’s diesel vehicle emissions scandal and the China Iron and Steel Association vowed to break its own steel export records.

China Vows More Steel Exports

China’s total steel product exports are likely to exceed 100 million metric tons this year, Wang Liqun, the vice-chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, told reporters on Wednesday.

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Volkswagen CEO Steps Down

Martin Winterkorn, the embattled chief executive of Volkswagen, announced that he will resign following the scandal surrounding doctored emissions reports of its diesel cars.

In a statement issued by the company, Winterkorn said he was “shocked by the events of the past few days.”

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“Above all, I am stunned that misconduct on such a scale was possible in the Volkswagen Group.”

Regulators discovered that VW’s diesel vehicles, in the US, had software on their internal computers designed to defeat proper vehicles emissions tests.

This is part 2 of a blog on a possible ban of “unqualified” Chinese petcoke and how it relates to global aluminum prices. Check out part 1 if you missed it.

Let’s just examine prior history… prior Chinese history….prior Chinese history involving reducing pollution and emissions.

We have to look no further than the rare earths market – one in which China controls a lot more of the global supply than it does aluminum.


Can an “unqualified” Chinese petcoke ban cause the cost of smelting to go up? Is the ban even real?

For several years China implemented controls to help “clean up” the rare earths processing industry.

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The scare had many pundits suggesting that quotas would cause rare earth metals price spikes. Guess what? It never happened. Instead, prices have plunged. They have plunged farther than any other group of metals we track.

What if the Ban Really Happens?

Going back to our criteria, could this impact one of the metals markets we track? Absolutely. How big is the order of magnitude impact? Well, without even being able to validate that China’s supposed new law banning unqualified petcoke was published, the fact that there is no clarity on what the Chinese authorities consider to be “unqualified” and that we haven’t even discussed the fact that there are likely dozens, if not tens of dozens, of refiners who would jump into this market if there was a supply squeeze, could we see rising aluminum prices?

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Sure, but there are many other reasons we may see rising aluminum prices in the coming years. It might be hard to ascertain the causal factor.

Therefore, unless/until we see evidence of enforcement, this “petcoke” supply shortage will stay firmly in the “low impact” category to metal buying organizations.

Carry on with business as usual.

The Aluminum Association, which represents producers and suppliers to the North American aluminum industry, expressed strong concern today about a recent call for the removal of a long-standing 15% tax on primary aluminum exported from China.

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The call came from the Chinese Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association and “appealed to all relevant national authorities to eliminate as soon as possible the provisional export tariff on aluminum to achieve integration of domestic and international aluminum markets.”

The Chinese government, which relies heavily on imported bauxite, has long applied export taxes on primary aluminum as part of a broader strategy to discourage exports of energy-intensive products and emphasize sustainable, quality growth. The unilateral removal of these taxes could have unforeseen impacts on the balance of trade and the global aluminum market.

In the US, domestic primary aluminum production is an essential element to American manufacturing. According to an economic analysis by John Dunham & Associates, this segment of the industry is responsible for a minimum of 10,600 jobs and $6 billion in economic output. The domestic aluminum industry could come under additional pressure should China remove the export taxes on primary aluminum.

“We strongly encourage the Chinese government to consider both the impact on the global aluminum market as well as the impact on their country’s own sustainability goals before heeding any call to remove export taxes on primary aluminum,” said Aluminum Association President & CEO Heidi Brock. “During a time when China is making global commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it would be a serious mistake to change course on this long-standing policy.”

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According to Aluminum Association data, from 2012 through 2014, US imports of semi-fabricated aluminum products (semis) from China increased 115%, growing China’s share from roughly 14% to nearly 28% over that period. Imports of Chinese semis totaled 675 million pounds year-to-date, an increase of 75% over the same period in 2014.

We recently received a note from a reader with questions regarding the recent Chinese remninbi currency devaluation and how sourcing professionals ought to engage with their Chinese metals suppliers. The questions included:

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  1. Should I be approaching all of my Chinese suppliers for a 3.5% price reduction?
  2. Should I expect to get it?

There are several ways to answer that question. So let’s start with the narrow answer and then expand into other aspects of China’s currency announcements.

US dollar vs. RMB

What will the devalued yuan mean for your metal buying strategy?

The Basics

First, if you pay your Chinese metal suppliers in RMB (yuan) then you ought to expect an automatic price reduction of 3.5% because the currency has depreciated. In other words, when you convert your dollars to RMB, you should see a 3.5% advantage (or whatever the newest/latest currency exchange rate is). Read more

As China goes, so too does the rest of the world, and that has been none more painfully clear than with the plummet of aluminum prices. China export volumes continue to be a main driver for this industrial metal’s decline. You can learn all about it, in addition to how other industrial metals are faring, by subscribing to our new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook.

China Export Volumes

We touched on the rise of Chinese aluminum exports back in April, as the Far East nation continued its transition into a consumer economy and, in turn, saw its domestic demand for aluminum fall off. However, that didn’t stop the Chinese from commissioning a new plant later this year that has the ability to produce upwards of 2 million tons of finished aluminum.

With so much aluminum being produced and so little domestic demand, what is a nation that has historically had issues unloading the product to do? The Shanghai Futures Exchange price has helped alleviate China’s difficulty exporting aluminum by dropping relative to the LME, allowing Chinese producers to better compete across Asia.

Just last month, the sharp increase in Chinese aluminum exports (35% year-over-year) raised a few eyebrows, most notably from Alcoa Inc.‘s Klaus Kleinfeld, who claimed the nation’s surging export figures were skewed by semi-finished products. The 2.5 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum and related products in the first half of 2015 equaled a 650,000-mt increase compared to the year prior.

At the Mercy of China’s Aluminum Producers

According to the Wall Street Journal, China accounts for about half of the world’s aluminum production and its producers are showing no signs of relenting their output of the metal despite plummeting prices. This is not what the rest of the market wants to hear.

“Chinese production is growing faster than in the rest of the world,” Ivan Szpakowski, Hong Kong-based analyst with Citi, told the news source. “Most producers in China are still making money, especially the ones with new capacity.”

Although the strength of the dollar has benefited aluminum producers outside the US to offset China’s export volumes, something has to be done as the global aluminum market could reach a surplus of 3 mmt of the metal before year’s end.

“China’s government should realize that huge exports are significantly influencing lower prices at the London Metal Exchange and it hurts primary producers not just outside China, but in China too,” Goran Djukanovic, an independent aluminum analyst, told the WSJ.

What Should My Industrial Buying Strategy Be?

You can find a more in-depth aluminum price outlook and forecast in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

Domestic steel producers have filed new anti-dumping petitions against eight countries, charging them with unfairly subsidizing steel exports into the US. Also, the Senate Energy Committee has advanced a bill that would lift the 40-year US oil export ban but it faces a tough road with the full Senate.

Domestic Producers File New Steel Anti-Dumping Cases

AK Steel Corp., ArcelorMittal USA LLC, Nucor Corp., Steel Dynamics, Inc., and U.S. Steel Corpfiled petitions recently with the Department of Commerce  and the US International Trade Commission charging that unfairly-traded imports of cold-rolled steel flat products from Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands, Russia and the United Kingdom are causing material injury to the domestic industry.

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The petitions allege that producers in each of the eight countries are dumping cold-rolled steel in the US market at substantial margins, all above 42% government subsidy.

Bill to Lift US Oil Export Ban Advances

The US Senate Energy Committee on Thursday narrowly passed a bill to lift a 40-year-old ban on the export of crude oil, but the measure faces an uphill battle in getting passed by the full Senate, Reuters reported. The bill would allow the US to export oil and boost state revenue-sharing for offshore oil and gas drilling. It passed along party lines by a vote of 12-10.

Three Best Practices for Buying Commodities

This is part two of an analysis of how China’s recent stock market crash affects neighboring India.

The Indian arm of global credit rating agency Fitch said with soft demand in China, base metal prices had gone down in the range of 2-21% in the first six months of 2015.

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On a year-to-date basis, Chinese domestic hot-rolled coil steel prices declined by 21%. London Metal Exchange nickel prices are down by about 12%, LME copper prices by 9% and China alumina prices by about 10%. In the last one month, iron ore prices dropped by 20%, Shanghai steel prices by 16.4%, and zinc prices by 7%.

What’s This Mean for Steel?

In reference to India’s steel sector, rating agency Ind-Ra pointed out that Indian manufacturers were already struggling with low capacity utilization, and lukewarm domestic demand was unlikely to benefit the margins of manufacturing units in the short term.

So was there any silver lining at all for India where the Chinese downturn is concerned? Depends who you listen to or talk to. Here’s what a report in the Business Standard claimed — the economic downturn would be good for smart cities. The rationale — copper is trading at a 6-year-low and China is the world’s top copper consumer, accounting for 40% of global consumption.

How About Aluminum?

Similarly, aluminum is trading at new lows and was already trading at prices below cost of production of many Chinese companies. For India, as a consumer, this is good news as the cost of constructing new infrastructure, especially smart cities, would reduce.

And that extends to a lower price for a technology innovation dear to almost everyone in the world, according to the report. Mobile phones will be cheaper, it predicted. If the Chinese really devalued their currency, world markets will be flooded with Chinese goods at low prices affecting exports of other countries, including India.

As for the rest, such as automobile manufacturers, it could possibly get only worse in the coming days.

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The author, Sohrab Darabshaw, contributes an Indian perspective on industrial metals markets to MetalMiner.

The US House voted last Wednesday to approve a short-term, $8 billion extension of federal transportation funding, which will last until December.

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House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has called on the Senate to pass the House’s $8 billion transportation funding patch “without any unrelated measures.”

Exports, Imports are Not Infrastructure

Ryan said after the temporary patch was approved on a 312-119 vote in the House, that the Senate should follow suit and send the lower chamber back a clean highway funding extension with no “unrelated measures.” Ryan was referring to a Senate plan to include an extension of the US Export-Import Bank’s charter in the upper chamber’s version of a new highway bill.


The US Export-Import Bank is closed for business and House Republicans don’t want a new charter for it attached to a Highway bill.

The Ex-Im Bank’s charter was recently allowed to expire and House Republicans have soured on the credit institution for US exporters. Many conservative groups view the bank as an outdated federal bureaucracy ready to be thrown on the scrap heap of government innovation and streamlining, believing that private banks can provide loans for exporters as they can for any other financial transactions. The Ex-Im Bank’s supporters claim it’s a vital institution needed to support US export competitiveness. Read more

Old Chinese proverb: when a giant in a race with another falters, the other, without a doubt, wins.

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Actually, I made that up. Ignore it. Still, when China’s economy started showing signs of a meltdown, some in India “predicted,” in a knee jerk reaction, that it was a “welcome development” for neighbor India.

No need to reiterate here how the two nations, with the largest populations and the largest economic growth rates, were in competition with each other in almost every sector.

A few days later, after the fog cleared, warning bells were rung by analysts and ratings agencies that if China was to lose the race, it would be tough for India, too. Even a tiny spill, such as the one China’s stock market felt last week, was bad enough. There would really be no winners in the race.

China’s economic troubles could have a significant impact on India, particularly in sectors like IT and steel, according to India’s trade and industry body, The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham).

The adverse economic developments may have a directionally negative impact on the Indian metals industry as well as on sectors with an export focus, claimed another agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) in a statement.

News reports, quoting metal analysts, claimed that while it was true that a drop in commodity prices linked to China’s slow demand was a positive for India, it was not really “good news” for a host of metal and iron ore producers such as Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, and upstream oil producers.

The fall in ore, steel and copper prices hit Indian manufacturers as hard as any other company in the world, so what’s there to cheer about?

A paper prepared by Assocham said that in today’s global economy, where India’s economy — like any other — is plugged into the rest of the world’s, the China downturn was bound to impact India. China, incidentally, was the number one merchandise trader in the world with over $4.16 trillion worth of trade, followed by the US with $3.9 trillion, as claimed by Assocham.

But the more pertinent point made by Assocham was that the kind of cost competitiveness which the Chinese companies provided to manufacturing semi-process industries — such as electronics, electrical and telecom equipment — would disappear from the global supply chain. This is without even mentioning the inability of India to fill any of those spaces vacated by the Chinese companies.

Another news report quoted Hitesh M. Avachat, Deputy Manager at CARE Ratings, as saying that China accounted for more than 30% of the overall consumption of metals globally. For Indian metal producers, the price collapse meant their landed price in India would go down further, thereby pressuring companies to reduce prices. Because of the likely Chinese dump of its surplus goods, India’s export demand may also fall, he added.

Jayant Acharya, Director, Commercial and Marketing, JSW Steel Ltd., quoted in the same report, said if prices kept falling, margins would get impacted.

The Indian arm of global credit rating agency Fitch said with soft demand in China, base metals prices had gone down in the range of 2-21% in the first six months of 2015. On a year-to-date basis, Chinese domestic hot-rolled coiled steel prices had declined by 21%, London Metal Exchange nickel prices by about 12%, LME copper metal prices by 9% and China alumina prices by about 10%. In the last month, alone, iron ore prices dropped by 20%, Shanghai steel prices by 16.4%, and zinc prices by 7%.

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The author, Sohrab Darabshaw, contributes an Indian perspective on industrial metals markets to MetalMiner.