Articles in Category: Exports

The United Steelworkers and the petitioning domestic steelmakers praised new anti-dumping tariffs against cold-rolled flat steel products, while also saying that the damage from cheap imports has already hurt their operations.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

“Today’s final duty orders by the Obama Administration expands fairer pricing conditions on cold-rolled steel products from five countries, combined with duties placed earlier this summer on the same steel import products from China and Japan,” United Steelworkers President Leo Gerard said. “We have nearly 19,000 steelworkers and iron ore miners still on extended layoff status since last year as the remaining steel trade case investigations continue to reduce huge inventories of unfairly dumped and subsidized finished steel imports that have been stockpiled before the case was initiated.”

Non-coil stainless is included in a new anti-dumping petition. Source Adobe Stock/Jovanning.

Cold-rolled steel flat products from five countries received new tariffs. Source Adobe Stock/Jovanning.

 

The cold-rolled case hit producers in Brazil and the Republic of Korea hardest — South Korea’s POSCO was hit with 64.62% combined anti-dumping and countervailing duties due to a failure to confirm key elements of its response to investigators — but tariffs have already had an effect on steel imports into the U.S. Most of them were already being collected as preliminary duties that became final last week. The initial case was filed last year.

Injury Before Remedy

“The year-long investigation and duty orders show our trade laws need a rewrite in today’s world of steel overcapacity that’s putting American manufacturing workers and miners on layoff in their our own market, while foreign producers keep shipping illegally-subsidized and dumped products,” USW International Vice President Tom Conway told the Times of Northwest Indiana. Read more

U.S. steel prices have had a spectacular run this year. Three main developments caused the price rally:

  • U.S. trade cases which produced a decline in U.S imports
  • China’s commitments this year to cut steel capacity
  • Steel demand growth thanks to China’s stimulus measures

The second one is still based on expectations because, so far, we have yet to see those capacity shutdowns in China.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Despite commitments and trade friction with several of China’s trading partners, China’s June trade data surged, raising more questions on the validity of China’s commitment to cutting steel production.

China’s Exports Are Up in June

June China steel exports up 21% year over year. Source: marketrealist.com

China’s June steel exports up 21% year over year. Source: marketrealist.com.

In June, China exported 10.9 million metric tons of steel, a 21% increase from June 2015 and the second highest total ever. The data raises questions on whether global steel markets will be able to absorb this much steel coming from China without it weighing on prices. Read more

The U.S. and the European Union filed a joint World Trade Organization challenge against China on July 19 over its use of duties and export quotas to control shipments of metals such as tin, tantalum, lead, copper, chromium, cobalt and others.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

The E.U./U.S. effort comes after the U.S. government’s original request for consultations filed on July 13. It also comes after the European Union failed to resolve a dispute with China over its use of duties and export quotas during bilateral meetings with China last week.

Chinese imports are allegedly being dumped in the EU and other foreign markets. Source: Adobe Stock.

Chinese export quotas are being challenged by the U.S. and the E.U. Source: Adobe Stock.

The new request adds challenges to export duties on chromium to the original list of antimony, cobalt, copper, graphite, indium, lead, magnesia, talcum, tantalum and tin. The new request also includes China’s export quotas imposed on antimony, indium, magnesia, talc and tin.

Trade Rep Speaks Out

During last week’s announcement, U.S. Trade Representative officials said export duties on the raw materials ranged from 5 to 20% and enabled Chinese companies to produce lower-priced goods than their U.S. competitors. China also used the lower cost of raw materials to encourage U.S. companies to move production to China, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative charged. Read more

Heavy-walled, rectangular carbon steel pipes are used mainly as structural members in construction. The Commerce Department recently affirmed earlier preliminary anti-dumping duties on pipe imports from Turkey, Mexico and the Republic of Korea.

The U.S. construction market has remained strong this this year with home construction posting strong gains this summer and low-cost imports of structural pipe have certainly helped general contractors’ bottom lines.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Most of the anti-dumping duties for providers in South Korea and Mexico came in at less than 5.5%, but Turkey was the big importing loser with some of its steel companies hit with duties between 36 and 15%, although one Turkish steelmaker was found not to have dumped at all.

rectangular welded steel pipes on painting work

Welded, structural carbon steel pipes are a mainstay of construction but new tariffs will increase the price of of imports from Mexico, Turkey and the Republic of Korea. Source: Adobe Stock/Artzenter.

Republic of Korea

Commerce found dumping has occurred by mandatory Korean respondents Dong-A Steel Co. and HiSteel Co. Ltd. at dumping margins of 2.34% and 3.82%, respectively. All other producers/exporters in Korea will incur a final dumping margin of 3.24%. Read more

Yesterday, the U.S. and Vietnam signed an agreement to resolve two longstanding World Trade Organization disputes over imports of Vietnamese shrimp to the U.S. (the official case numbers are DS404 and DS429).

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

The agreement provides a framework for the settlement of American court litigation, as well as the resolution of outstanding anti-dumping duty claims covering various administrative reviews of a 2005 warmwater shrimp order. Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Barbara Weisel, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Enforcement and Compliance Paul Piquado, and Vietnam’s Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Quoc Khanh signed the agreement yesterday.

Fishermen pour the shrimp out of the basket into bucket for transportation to sale .

A case involving Vietnamese shrimp shows how difficult it can be to quantify value for non-market economy goods. Source: Adobe Stock/Armcreation.

You might ask yourself, what does shrimp have to do with metals? As to how it concerns world trade, this case is important because it addresses the sometimes nebulous question of what exactly is fair in determining the proper prices of exports from non-market economies into market economies like the U.S. You see, Vietnam and China are the only two countries considered by the WTO to be non-market economies.

Market Economy vs. Non-Market Economy

Back in 2005, the U.S. imposed anti-dumping duties on several Vietnamese importers of shrimp. Vietnam asked the WTO to review the duties and, in 2014, a WTO panel found the original anti-dumping order to be inconsistent with WTO rules, including elements of the decision not to remove Vietnamese exporter Minh Phu, a producer that later proved it had not dumped for three years — from the order. In 2015, the panel’s findings were adopted by the WTO dispute settlement body and the U.S. agreed to come into compliance.

The panel faulted “as such” Commerce’s practice in anti-dumping cases of starting with a “rebuttable presumption” that all exporters in non-market economies are government controlled, state-sponsored entities. As we said above, Vietnam and China are the only two countries regarded by the department to be NMEs. As with steel companies in China, some Vietnamese shrimp producers are state-controlled and some are not. The WTO essentially said Commerce must prove that companies it places tariffs on are receiving government support.

State-Sponsored Enterprises?

A 129 review is the process used to determine how Commerce can make a redetermination that would ensure that its decisions in particular trade remedy cases are in line with the findings of the WTO. In the instance of DS429, the U.S. was faulted by the WTO dispute settlement panel in 2014 for improperly calculating the duties and in May 2015 informed the panel that it planned on coming into compliance with the panel report. The reasonable period of time for the U.S. to conform to the panel report was set to expire on Aug. 22.

Following a request from U.S. Trade Representative, the Department issued a preliminary section 129 determination on May 20, to implement findings of the WTO dispute settlement body. The preliminary decision includes a recalculation of Minh Phu’s dumping rates for 2008/2009 in a manner consistent with the WTO panel’s findings. As a result of the recalculation, Minh Phu’s rate for that period was reduced to zero and Commerce preliminarily found that revocation of the anti-dumping order with respect to Minh Phu was appropriate.

As part of the agreement, Minh Phu and its importers will be required to certify that it is the producer and exporter of any shrimp it exports to the U.S., to ensure that other exporters are not circumventing the anti-dumping order through transshipment.

The lack of a 123 review suggests that Commerce is taking a very narrow approach to implement the as-such ruling on its non-market economy practice by only making changes to these particular cases involving shrimp.

Narrow Resolution

However, Commerce’s final memo on the 129 review does allude to the “as such” challenge. It stops short of pledging to resolve the criticized practice of viewing all producers as state-sponsored beyond these two cases.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Piquado, in a Commerce press release accompanying the agreement, said he is pleased the resolution “preserves [the United States’] ability to effectively remedy unfair trade…”

So, as we discussed above, if the new, post-Brexit U.K. allows open access to workers from the European Union — and not allowing open borders and easy employment for other Europeans was the central plank and sticking point of the entire Leave campaign — it might be easier to make a deal with those former partner nations in the E.U. That would also raise the question, “what was all of this for?”

Free Download: The June 2016 MMI Report

If discarding the objective of banning open access proves too much of a barrier, the U.K. may opt to fall back on World Trade Organization rules which will mean tariffs and possibly other bureaucratic barriers such as quotas will be established between the U.K. and Europe. That will encourage firms to locate future investment inside the single market rather than in the U.K.

What Might A Future Deal Look Like?

In the meantime, and a final solution could be two years away, the U.K. benefits from a lower pound which will boost exports to the single market and rest of the world. There are a number of models the U.K. could agree with Europe on, long-term, to establish trade rules and coexist in the future.

Germany exports the third-most of its goods to Great Britain behind only the U.S. and France. Negotiators are already trying to solve the puzzle of how to let the U.K. leave the E.U. without Germany leaving all of that business on the Brexit table. Source: Adobe Stock/Luzetania.

The Remain camp’s favorite is the Norwegian model that gives tariff-free access to the single market in return for free movement of labor, acceptance of many of the E.U.’s laws and payment into the E.U. budget, although no say whatsoever, into how that money is spent. The movement clause is likely a dealbreaker for Leave hardliners. Read more

Reuters_MetalMiner Chart of the Week 062216_550

Source: Reuters

Aluminum reached a one-month high this week as Chinese demand took up more supply at home. As the Shanghai Futures Exchange price has risen, idled smelters has restarted.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China weakened the yuan/renminbi to its lowest level in five years. The actual cut was small: only about 0.34%. The Chinese yuan closed 0.2% weaker on Tuesday at 6.559 per dollar compared with that morning’s midpoint of 6.5468. Since the end of April, the currency’s value has dropped three weeks in a row.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

It did not send world markets spiraling downward as panicked investors did last August when China devalued its currency by nearly 2%, or in early January, when it cut by about 0.5%.

How Fast is the Chinese Economy Growing?

China’s ruling Communist Party still claims the country is growing 6.5% to 7% a year. Capital Economics, among other independent forecasters, believes the real number is closer to 4.2%.

Bloomberg_yuanfix_550_052516

Click for full size. Source: Bloomberg News

Market watchers believe there is a struggle going on between China’s top leaders on what to do next.

The Wall Street Journal reported that, behind closed doors in March, some of China’s most prominent economists and bankers bluntly asked the PBOC to stop fighting the financial markets and let the value of the nation’s currency fall. They supposedly got nowhere with bank officials.

Read more

In the last year, the U.S. steel industry has aggressively pursued anti-dumping and countervailing duty lawsuits against Chinese producers of various steel products.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol has stepped up efforts to enforce U.S. trade law. Earlier this week, the Department of Commerce confirmed the cold-rolled steel anti-dumping margins from China (265.79%) and Japan (71.35%) as well as a countervailing subsidy for China of (256.44%). This makes for a total of 522% duties on Chinese cold-rolled steel.

The U.S. steel industry says we are at economic war with China. With cold-rolled steel being used in automobile panels, appliances and construction, could the anti-dumping and countervailing duties lawsuits against Chinese producers actually be hurting the United States?

Steel’s War

The steel industry directly employs 142,000 people which is part of the 12 million U.S. manufacturing jobs according to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). The newly elected chairman of American Iron and Steel Institute — John Ferriola, chairman, president and CEO of Nucor Corp. — said at a recent AISI CEO press briefing that steel jobs declined by 13,000 in 2015. Although steel jobs declined last year, manufacturing jobs in other subsectors have picked up the slack. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a total of 13,000 manufacturing jobs were created in 2015.

china-ship-and-buildings

Trade is a two-way street, what if China begins to tariff the goods U.S. manufacturers sell there? Source: iStock.

Steel prices have been rising in the U.S. as domestic mills are now shielded from imports China and other countries named in the trade cases. According to numerous sources, the domestic lead times have extended which is leaving some companies scrambling for metal.  Read more

It would seem Iran is not the only major Middle East economy on the cusp of radical change. If the espoused wishes of deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud (or MbS as the media have got into the habit of calling him) are realized, the desert kingdom is in for a period of change over the next decade that would be unprecedented in it’s recent history.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Certainly, oil has transformed the kingdom since it was first commercially extracted in 1938 but the culture of Saudi society has been carefully nurtured, protected, even shielded — one might say — from the corrupting influence of the outside world.

Group of big fuel tanks. Ras Tanura oil terminal, Saudi Arabia

A group of fuel tanks in the Ras Tanura oil terminal in Saudi Arabia. If Prince Mohammad has his way, this will someday be a thing of the past in the kingdom. Source: AdobeStock/eugenesergeev.

Yet the days of a close compact between the House of Saud dynastic monarchy and the religious Wahhabi clerical establishment that, in exchange for control over education and the judiciary, has provided the rulers with legitimacy, may be seeing the beginning of its end.

The Prince’s Plan

The new King Salman’s son, Prince Mohammad, believes Saudi Arabia has been addicted to oil, an addiction that has cost it dearly in terms of economic development and progress. Trying to look into the future, he clearly feels Saudi Arabia needs to face up to the march of time before it is too late. Read more