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Articles on: Metal Prices

Macro photo of a piece of lead ore

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group released its initial lead findings for February, and found that in 2016, supply exceeded demand in the global market for the refined metal.

Furthermore, lead inventories reported by the London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and consumers and producers during that same period of time increased, as well.

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The ILZSG report elaborated: “There was a sharp decrease in Australian lead mine output mainly as a consequence of the closure of the Century mine in 2015 and cutbacks in output at some Glencore operations. Production was also lower in India and Mexico. However, these reductions were partially balanced by a rise in China resulting in an overall global decline of 1.3%.”

However, world refined lead metal production actually increased 2.4% in 2016. This was mostly attributed to the Republic of Korea (South Korea) commissioning a new primary lead plant in 2015.

Lead Price Momentum on High in 2017

According to a recent piece from our own Raul de Frutos, after a strong run in 2016, lead prices pulled back to close the year. However, prices have since recovered and Raul predicts they will trade at $2,800 by the end of this year.

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“(Lead prices) are currently below $20 per metric ton, from $80 just three months ago. In this respect, lead is playing catch-up with its cousin zinc, in which the deficit for refined metal is more obvious. In 2017 investors will be closely monitoring China’s numbers. The slump in treatment charges and the fact that China must get serious about controlling industrial metals output to solve its pollution problem could result in lower lead refined output this year.”

How will lead and base metals fare this year? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

President Donald Trump’s administration is mulling changes to how the U.S. calculates trade deficits. A change could be made that would show more movements of goods between free trade agreement countries, the Wall Street Journal reported recently citing people involved in the discussions.

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The leading idea under consideration would exclude from U.S. exports any goods first imported into the country, such as cars, and then transferred to a third country like Canada or Mexico unchanged, the sources told The Wall Street Journal. These would not be traditional transshipments, generally done to disguise a country of origin, but rather shipments that are manifested to include the country of origin but simply move goods through a trade agreement country.

Economists say that approach would cause trade deficit numbers to go up because it would typically count goods as imports when they come into the country but not count the same goods when they go back out, known as re-exports.

Trump has been highly critical of trade deals including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. By using a metric that widens the trade deficit, it could give him political leverage to make sweeping changes, the newspaper reported.

If the government adopted the new method, the deficit with Mexico would be nearly twice as high.

The effect of such a change would be particularly stark on data involving countries that have free trade deals with the U.S., this person said—and in some cases the new methodology could even change a trade surplus into a trade deficit.

Trump trade officials said the idea is part of an early discussion and that they are examining various options. It is unclear whether the administration would adopt any new approach for measuring trade as part of official government data, or just use the higher deficit calculation to make the case for new trade deals.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

“We’re not even close to a decision on that yet,” Payne Griffin, the deputy chief of staff at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative told the Journal. “We had a meeting with the Commerce Department, and we said, ‘Would it be possible to collect those other statistics?’”

The Journal reported that career government employees at the USTR’s office complied with the request to prepare data using the new methodology but also noted their objections.

The showdown between global copper miner Freeport-McMoran, Inc. and the Indonesian government got a little hotter this week.

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Arizona-based Freeport majority-owns the world’s second-largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia. The company has been trying to get a new permit from the Indonesian government to continue exporting copper concentrates for the last six months. On Monday Freeport said it would not accept terms of a deal the government offered that would allow it to resume shipments of copper concentrate that have been idled since January 12.

One More Year… Then Give Up Your Mine

Friday the Indonesian government offered Freeport a new, one-year deal that would allow the company to continue exports but only if it agrees to new rules requiring it to build a new copper smelter in Indonesia within the next five years and also agree to switch to an operating license, the terms of which would require Freeport to, eventually, give up control of Grasberg.

Kennecott Copper Mine

Open pit copper mines such as Rio Tinto’s Kennecott in Utah could increase production and increase sales if Grasberg stays closed. Source: Adobe Stock/Photofly.

Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson, naturally, turned down that offer and said the company is unwilling to revisit the terms of its 30-year contract to mine at Grasberg, which accounts for about a third of Freeport’s annual copper production and 40 to 50% of its worldwide assets. He also said Freeport would consider going to arbitration if it can’t settle this dispute within 120 days. Read more

The London Metal Exchange steel scrap contract is coming of age much more rapidly than the old steel billet contract did. Unlike its older sibling, the steel scrap contract has the prospect of becoming a meaningful and valuable tool both for the trade but also for analysts and financial players.

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The LME Ferrous Monthly Update report for February reported there was steady uptake of both scrap and steel rebar contracts last year and that there was  a surge of activity in January, for both February dates and out to September of this year. LME Steel Scrap and LME Steel Rebar both traded record volumes last month. LME Steel Scrap traded the equivalent of 262,450 metric tons composed of almost 2,500 individual trades, the LME reports.

Source London Metal Exchange

As volume and liquidity builds, the contract will become more representative of real market prices and as a result increasingly relevant as a viable tool. One measure of liquidity is the narrowing of bid/offer spreads. In a non-liquid market buyers and sellers are harder to find and spreads tend to be wider, but as volume has built market makers have been able to narrow the spreads reducing trading costs and increasing the attractiveness of the contract for hedging. Read more

Source: MetalMiner IndX

Zinc hit a record shortage in 2016. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, zinc registered a deficit of 286,000 metric tons last year. Global usage of refined zinc metal rose 3.6% while supply remained pretty much flat thanks to a number of mine shutdowns.

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The tightening in zinc’s raw material segment accelerated last year thanks to the closure of big mines such as Century, Lisheen and Glencore‘s suspension of 500,000 mt of annual mine capacity. These closures have impacted the supply of mine concentrates drastically and, for the first time, we are seeing an impact in the refined metal market.

In February, Korea Zinc Co. announced it will reduce its refined zinc output by 7.7% (or 50,000 mt) this year. The company attributed its decision to tight supplies of mined concentrate and the accompanying reduction in treatment charges, which have plummeted to multiyear lows.

Prices at Multiyear Highs

Zinc is trading near multiyear highs. Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets.com data.

As a result of this narrative of supply shortfall, zinc is trading at the highest levels in more than eight years. Bulls have been in such a powerful position that prices have barely retraced during this run.

Will China Cut Output This Year?

Outside of China, mine supply of zinc fell by 10% last year. However, production increased inside China. In 2017 investors will be closely monitoring China’s numbers. Although output rose, imports slumped by 38% last year. This, combined with falling treatment charges, suggests that a raw material shortfall is building in China as well. China must get serious about controlling industrial metals output to solve its pollution problems.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

The conclusion: it’s only a matter of time before Chinese producers are forced to cut refined zinc output.

Much to the delight of not only its executives and employees but both the global steel sector and even stock markets, the Luxembourg-based steel giant ArcelorMittal has posted its first annual profit in more than five years, registering the biggest jump in earnings in the same period.

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The world’s largest steelmaker by output swung from a $7.9 billion net loss in 2015 to a net profit of $1.8 billion last year. Read more

All work has stopped at Freeport-McMoran‘s giant Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, just over a month after the country halted exports of copper concentrate to boost domestic industries.

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Freeport had said the suspension would require the mine to slash output by 60% to approximately 70 million pounds of metal per month if it did not get an export permit by mid-February, due to limited storage. A strike at Freeport’s sole domestic taker of copper concentrate, PT Smelting is expected to last at least until March and has limited Freeport’s output options as Grasberg’s storage sites are now full.

Nippon Exec: Chinese Steel Prices Will Hold Firm

Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp., Japan’s biggest steelmaker, expects steel prices in top consumer China to hold firm at least until its Communist Party congress late this year, amid solid demand that is underpinning coking coal and iron ore markets.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Chinese futures contracts for steel rebar used in construction have already risen 17% in 2017, on top of a gain of more than 60% last year

We recently launched a new product, MetalMiner Benchmark, which is a secure, anonymous and reliable way for you, the buyer, to compare industrial metal prices (or quotes) from North American Suppliers to thousands of transactions made by other firms for the same or similar metals.

The MetalMiner℠ Benchmark application is different than other pricing tools. The MMB database contains prices actually paid or quoted, NOT catalog prices. While there are plenty of “transactional polling sites” out there, most of them simply scrape and compile publicly available information. The MMB database contains millions of specific price points allowing for detailed analysis of your metal spend by type, grade, form, and size (e.g. 3003 H14 .050 x 48” x 120” sheets). The goal is simple: promote price transparency in the marketplace and help you source the materials you need more effectively.

A lighted underground tunnel in a nickel mine

Nickel prices increased early in February with hedge funds and speculators hurrying to close bets against the metal with the Philippines moving ahead with regulations on its mining industry.

According to a recent report from the Financial Times, nickel’s climb was directly attributed to the closure of 21 mines along with the suspension of another six pits, including the nation’s largest gold mine.

Want a short- and medium-term buying outlook for aluminum, copper, tin, lead, zinc, nickel and several forms of steel? Subscribe to our monthly buying outlook reports!

The Philippines is the world’s most significant source of unprocessed nickel ore, along with being a major supplier to China, the news source stated. A renewed emphasis on environmentalism led to Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte appointing a like-minded resource minister to investigate the nation’s mining industry.

“My issue here is not about mining, my issue here is about social justice,” Regina Lopez, natural resources secretary, said during a recent briefing. “Why is mining more important than people’s lives?”

Nickel Price Outlook for 2017

Lopez pointed at the mine closures, which account for nearly half of the nation’s nickel output.

“We are very pleased to see the Philippines taking this action while allowing proper mining companies which adhere to better environmental practice to continue,” analysts at SP Angel told the Financial Times, adding the whole nickel supply chain was an “environmental disaster”.

“The huge growth of ore exports into China for the production of nickel pig iron disrupted the nickel industry in recent years while causing massive environmental disruption in the mining areas and at the nickel pig-iron furnaces.”

How will nickel and base metals fare in 2017? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

 

The 3-Month LME aluminum price soars. Source: Fastmarkets.com.

Aluminum prices hit $1,900 per metric ton this week. Aluminum has surged 13% so far this year.

China Proposes Supply Cuts to Fight Pollution

We already predicted at the beginning of January that China’s supply would be the most important price driver to watch this year.

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In February, a Chinese government document proposed that about a third of aluminum capacity in the provinces of Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi be shut down over the winter months. If implemented, they would be some of the most radical steps so far to tackle air quality in the country of 1 billion’s most polluted cities. Read more