According to FastMarkets, tin has dipped downward three times since April, but each time was followed by a strong rebound, possibly revealing that a strong foundation is now being built for the base metal.
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Tin activity in recent weeks: 0.3% drop last week to $14,800 per ton and further decline on Monday, Nov. 9, to $14,615 per ton. However, both those figures are significantly higher than the low point of $13,365 per ton that tin reached in June.
“Given low LME stocks, we feel an uptrend may well start to unfold – we would not be surprised if prices work back towards $16,500 in the fourth quarter, with support likely around $14,000,” the source states.
Indonesian Exports Paint the Picture
Recent tin price activity can be chalked up to the recovery of Indonesian exports. New regulations went into effect on Nov. 1, leading to a delay in shipments and driving LME tin stocks under 5,000 metric tons, down from a high this year of 12,165 mt.
“As more smelters get permits, exports are expected to recover but the introduction of further restrictions on November 1 that force smelters to prove they have been paying royalties and taxes on shipments may further disrupt shipments,” said Sucden Financial in a quarterly metals report.
How will base metals fare for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016? You can find a more in-depth tin price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds: