Read the first part of this post here.
Would the US, Britain, or Japan change policy at the request of foreign powers because the foreign powers were, relatively, not doing as well? I don’t think so, especially if that meant lower support for exporters and industry, stoking inflation, and boosting internal consumption when the economy already has the lowest unemployment rate in Europe.
The villain here is not Germany, but the Euro. Arguably, if Germany left the Euro, one could see some immediate corrective swings occurring. Germany’s new currency would rise dramatically against the “new” Euro, and the remaining Euro countries would benefit from a massive devaluation in their currency, boosting competitiveness.
Unfortunately, there would be no one to fund the hundreds of billions of dodgy loans and outright debt the area is saddled with. Because what is oft overlooked is the fact that Germany has been the largest contributor to the European Stability Fund and the European Central Bank. German guarantees supporting the existing bailout fund amount to €211 billion ($285 billion). The ESM will require a capital contribution from Germany. If the ESM lends its full commitment of €500 billion ($675 billion) and the recipients default, Germany’s liability could be as high as €280 billion ($378 billion).
As the FT points out, the size of these exposures is huge in relation to Germany’s GDP of around €2.5 trillion, and German household assets estimated at €4.7 trillion. Nor is Germany without its own problems. It has substantial levels of its own debt (over 80% of GDP), an ageing population, and deteriorating dependency ratios, to compound its problems.
No wonder Germany suggested taking over the running of the Greek economy early in 2012. They wanted to be sure a major default didn’t start a domino effect that would end at Germany’s doorstep.