Precious Metals

The commodities sector is suffering from lackluster prices, weak demand and, in many cases, overproduction but one sector is on the up, and that’s precious metals. Particularly gold and silver prices.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

According to the Financial Times, gold and silver have been among the best performing metals during 2016, powering a sharp rally in stock prices and helping miners ease concerns over their finances.

Gold Prices Take Off

Since the start of the year, gold has risen 27% while silver is up 46% giving more scope to the sector to return to dividend payments.

Source: Financial Times

Source: Financial Times

Many miners cut dividends after the price of gold, which peaked at about $1,900 in 2011, started to fall sharply in 2013. Although gold miners were not alone, they did take action early. Read more

We rarely see such positive growth in metal prices as we did in the August MMI Price Trends Report.

MM-IndX_TRENDS_Chart_August2016_FNL-TOPVALUE100

All the metals we track were up save for Aluminum, which fell only 1.3%, and renewables and rare earths, which held flat. The Stainless Steel MMI increased 9% amid uncertainty about Chinese nickel ore supply after mining crackdowns in top supplier, the Philippines.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Meanwhile, the most bullish of bull runs continued for our Global Precious MMI which added a 7.2% increase to its jump last month to knock on the door of the top 10% of the IndX. The platinum group metals had strong increases along with gold and silver this month.

Wall Street Bull

“Hey metal buyers, remember me?” Wall Street bull courtesy of iStock.

Palladium, particularly, made higher highs and stumbled to lower lows in classic bull market fashion.

So buy quickly before prices increase more, right? Wrong. Our Raw Steels MMI posted a healthy 4% increase, but it’s still heavily dependent on China’s stimulus programs to keep demand up in the largest global consumer of steel products. If there is a pullback in stimulus, prices could fall dramatically. The same is true for copper.

Unlike diamonds, bullish trends in commodities and industrial metals don’t last forever. Continue to make informed buying decisions in this thriving market — watch China’s stimulus program and the strength of the U.S. dollar post- Brexit — and remember that today’s price strength might be tomorrow’s carpet getting pulled out from under your feet.

After a gap of 30 years, the London Metal Exchange is, in collaboration with the World Gold Council, getting back into precious metals. Not just because it sees an opportunity, but because the industry is in desperate need of an efficient and professional marketplace following the departure of principal banks from London’s Gold Fix in the wake of the Libor scandal and suggestions the Gold Fix could be manipulated.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

The LME announced this week it will launch centrally cleared gold and silver contracts on a platform called LMEprecious in the first half of next year, followed by platinum and palladium.

Gold bars

Gold will trade on the basis of London good-delivery 99.5% bars in 100 ounce lots. Source: Adobe Stock/misunseo.

According to Bloomberg, the new contracts are designed to complement London’s $5 trillion over-the-counter gold and silver market and will include contracts for spot, daily and monthly futures, options and calendar spread contracts, according to the statement.

Who’s Got the LME’s Back?

Trading house OSTC and banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc., ICBC Standard Bank Plc, Morgan Stanley, Natixis SA and Societe Generale SA will co-own the LMEprecious platform and will act as liquidity providers and some 30 firms have expressed a desire to be engaged from the initial offering. Read more

Gold and silver will return to the London Metal Exchange soon and China’s pollution crackdown may affect tin prices as many smelters have shut down.

Gold and Silver Return to the LME

The London Metal Exchange said today it is planning to launch spot and futures contracts for gold and silver in the first half of 2017, adding to its list of products which includes copper and aluminum.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

The 139-year old exchange is working in collaboration with the World Gold Council, an industry body backed by gold mining companies such as Barrick Gold and Goldcorp, and is supported by five banks and proprietary trader OSTC, which have committed to provide liquidity.

China Cracks Down on Pollution

China could ramp up imports of refined tin as a string of environmental inspections at smelters in the world’s top producer of the metal curbs local output.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

Officials in eight provinces last month began inspecting metals producers including tin smelters, forcing some to shutter production while they look to comply with environmental standards, according to industry officials and analysts.

10% publicly-traded companies in the U.S. who filed form SDs with the federal government have proven it is possible to not only comply with Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, but to also perform supply chain due diligence in line with industry best practices, according to an analysis of public filings by Dr. Chris Bayer, PhD, of Tulane University.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

Yet, more than three years after U.S. companies began filing reports about their efforts to find conflict minerals linked to armed militias in Africa in their supply chains, 65% say they still can’t make a determination.

U.S.-listed companies are required to investigate their supply chain for the presence tin, tantalum, tungsten and gold (commonly known as 3TG in metals circles), under a rule stemming from the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act. The law is meant to choke off mining revenue to militia groups in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjacent countries.

As well-meaning as it is, even last year many companies were not able to fully vet their supply chains and have previously said so in their filings.

This year, 10% of Form SD and CMR (conflict minerals) filers were found to be 100% SEC Rule compliant 67% were at or above the 75% compliance threshold. In all, SD & CMR filers averaged a compliance score of 79%, a generally high degree of compliance.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

More than 100 companies said or implied they had conflict-free products, Bayer found. His study was advised by Assent Compliance, among others. But only 19 companies, including Intel, Qualcomm, Cree, Hasbro and Texas Instruments, actually underwent an audit for those claims on one or more of their products.

Gold and most precious metals are still gaining from the bounce they received after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union and most bankers and analysts expect that to continue. In contrast, European aluminum premiums are falling.

Poll: Gold’s Brexit Bounce Has Legs

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has led analysts to raise their gold price forecasts again this year, after the decision shook up financial markets and sparked a rally in the precious metal to two-year highs.

Free Download: The July 2016 MMI Report

A poll of 25 analysts and traders over the last two weeks returned an average price forecast for this year of $1,280 an ounce, up from $1,209 in a similar survey in April, and nearly 15% higher than a poll at the start of the year.

European Aluminum Surcharges Keep Falling

Surcharges for physical aluminum in Europe are expected to gradually extend their recent decline due to sluggish demand as metal is released from warehouses when finance deals become less lucrative.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

The premiums, which consumers pay on top of the London Metal Exchange cash price for immediate delivery, were quoted at $115-$120 a metric ton for duty-paid metal in Rotterdam, down some $10-$15 in recent months and from $140-$150 in early February.

Every single price point across the precious metals tracked by the MetalMiner IndX — gold, silver, platinum and palladium — increased over the month of June, helped mainly along by the boon that Brexit has been (for precious producers, anyway…more on that below).

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

As a result, our monthly Global Precious MMI for July shot up 8% to 83, the index’s highest value since June 2015.

black and gold precious metals price index chart

Exit Britain, Enter Gold Price Increases

Britain’s vote to exit the E.U. left the pound Sterling in turmoil, with the British currency recently troughing at a new 30-year low, with no end to the bleeding in sight, while the Euro has also suffered. We all know what that means: investors flocking to safe-haven assets, such as gold. Which, in turn, means producers will be able to justify keeping near-to-medium-term mine production levels and exploration status quo (at least).

The U.S. bullion price of the yellow metal jumped 8.7% month over month, a significant increase. (Correspondingly, US silver bars shot up 17.2%.) Just after the Brexit vote results came in, HSBC analysts predicted that gold will breach $1,400 per ounce. It has already been flirting with the high $1,300s the past couple weeks and, according to HSBC Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel, “the drive higher may be more than 10% in the longer term if there were to be broader concerns about the future direction of the E.U. after the vote,” as originally reported by Kitco News.

Investors Go Long

Adding more fuel to that fire, hedge funders increased their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts to record highs by the end of last week, further showing their bullishness in the safe-haven asset, according to Reuters.

Another major driver of the gold price has been the U.S. bond market. As my colleague Raul de Frutos has written, treasury prices soared and yields plunged to four-year lows as investors continued to seek haven assets. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell as low as 1.45% two weeks ago, the lowest level in four years. Bond yields not only fell in the U.S.; British 10-year government bond yields sank below 1% on Monday for the first time ever. Similarly, Japanese bond yields fell below 0.1% for the first time, reflecting unprecedented long-term pessimism.

The lower the yield, the lower the returns investors get from their bonds. That’s important, because in periods where yields are near zero, many investors prefer to buy gold rather than bonds. In this manner, in the current stock market turmoil, part of the money that would normally go to assets paying a yield is going to gold instead.

Negative interest rates worldwide also help gold’s case.

Big M&A News: Centerra Gold + Thompson Creek Metals

All this Brexiting has prepped large Canadian miner Centerra Gold to pull the trigger on acquiring Thompson Creek Metals last Tuesday, based in Denver, as reported by Reuters.

The price tag: $1.1 billion, including debt.

Compare Prices With The June 2016 MMI Report

The main reason: Centerra owns and operates its main asset, the Kumtor gold mine, in Kyrgyzstan, and seeing as how the Asian nation wants a bigger cut of Centerra’s pie lately, the Canadian miner wants to reduce its exposure in Asia while boosting its footprint in North America.

With the recent upsurge in gold prices, times for miners such as Centerra are looking quite rosy.

For full access to this MetalMiner membership content:
Log In |

The British government insists that its pension and equity stake for Tata Steel U.K.‘s biggest operation in Port Talbot, South Wales, is still on the table.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

Gold also hit a two-year high today.

Government’s Port Talbot Deal Still Available

The British government’s offer of financial aid to Tata Steel U.K. and to potential buyers of its assets is still on the table — including its massive steelworks in Port Talbot, South Wales — business minister Anna Soubry told Reuters on Wednesday, despite Britain’s vote last month to leave the European Union.

Free Download: The June 2016 MMI Report

Seeking to avoid thousands of job losses, the government had offered millions of pounds in support for the company and its potential buyers. It also pledged to take a 25% equity stake in Tata’s U.K. branch and reform the British Steel Pension Scheme (BSPS).

Gold Hits a Two-Year High

Gold increased for a seventh straight session after touching its highest point in more than two years in the previous session as investors are still seeking safe-haven assets even as stock markets are tentatively bouncing back after the U.K.’s Brexit vote last month.

Monthly Metal July_Final-220Read all about the implications of Brexit and other recent developments for metals markets in our July Monthly Metal Buying Outlook.

Our Monthly Metal Buying Outlook allows you to receive short- and long-term buying strategies with specific price thresholds. If you would like to trial our metal price forecast, click below to get two free months of reports.

Gold is recovering its strength this month. Prices last week rose to the highest levels in almost two years. We already pointed out last month that prices had upside potential.

Free Download: The June 2016 MMI Report

There are mainly three factors contributing to the price move:

Gold hits new highs on falling bond yields and economic fears. Source: Stockcharts.com

Gold hits new highs on falling bond yields and economic fears. Source: @Stockcharts.com

Economic Fears

The yellow metal is being bought as a hedge against falling global stocks. The unusually dovish comments from the Federal Reserve last Wednesday showed a lot more pessimism on the U.S. and global economy while investors fear that central banks are losing their ability to boost global stocks or economies. Moreover, this week’s British Brexit vote is causing a lot of global volatility.

NYSE Composite Index acting like 2007’s top. Source: MetalMiner analysis of @StockCharts.com data.

NYSE Composite Index acting like 2007’s top. Source: stockcharts.com

As we warned in May, stock markets pulled back in June. There is no guarantee that the worst has passed. Indeed, so far we are just witnessing choppy action.

Read more