Did you honestly think it had gone away? In the week that the U.K. government is set to announce article 50, formally notify its European partners that it plans to leave the E.U. within two years, we’re reminded of the ongoing political process which is likely to add significant volatility in the year ahead.
The U.K.’s (or at least Great Britain’s, Scotland is vowing to hold its own referendum on staying in the U.K.) decision to leave the E.U. will have far-reaching consequences but, realistically, does not look likely to signal a breakup of the E.U. itself. Recent elections in the Netherlands saw a swing back to liberal pro-E.U. political parties and a rejection of more xenophobic and anti-E.U. sentiments as espoused by Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom. Although she is likely to do well in the first round, the Dutch result does not bode well for Marine Le Pen in the upcoming French elections with pro-E.U. parties doing well in the polls. The E.U., politically, is currently showing a united front particularly in its pre-negotiating stance with the U.K.
Clean Break? Or Regulatory Cooperation?
Britain, on the other hand, is waging what can the politely be called an internal debate between those who are lobbying for a hard Brexit or clean break from all E.U. laws and institutions, and those on the other side taking a more pragmatic view that it could be in Britain’s interest (if it genuinely wants some form of open access to E.U. markets) to maintain compliance with many E.U. regulations and institutions. Read more