Some of you may remember hearing from us several weeks ago regarding plant shut downs in China in the run-up to the Olympics. Well, it has been decided for sure, according to my friend Richard Brubaker who writes a terrific blog at All Roads Lead to China and has been covering this story. But the plant shut-downs are only one part of the story. As Richard points out, the other short term issue of great concern to anyone importing anything from Northern China is the trucks-off-the-road edict in and around Beijing. In short if you import metal products or finished goods containing metal products, you could be facing delays and/or plant shut downs, depending on a range of factors.
Rich discusses several risks with the new closures including: a possible expansion of the radius of closures if target pollution levels are not met, water rationing due to a continued drought and energy shortages could close additional manufacturing facilities. He is spot on. Our man on the ground in China offered up some additional perspectives:
- Coal plants were on the list of plants to be shut down. But coal is in huge demand in China which could exacerbate energy shortages. Any high energy consuming industries such as ferro alloys, pig iron and refineries will be greatly affected
- Most metal exports have already been greatly curbed, due to export tax changes (the exception is high precision machining)
Since Jason is based out of Tianjin, one of the cities affected by the plant closures, we asked him to comment on the affect of the closures on metals manufacturers. He said it was likely some plants may close forever whereas others will only close for the time being. The export duties have put some ferro alloy plants out of business already. When asked if the proposed provinces/regions will be sufficient to achieve cleaner air for the Olympics, Jason said we may hear of the south delivering water to the North (e.g. digging a canal from the Yangtzi River to Beijing). All high pollution emitting companies along the river have been forced to shut down already. And many in China feel this stricter policy is necessary to further reduce pollution.What is perhaps most interesting is the dramatic change all of these factors are having on trade between the US and China. Many textile plants, shoe making companies and clothing factories are no longer in business. Many outbound vessels are being shipped with dead freight (since Q4 ’07). There is now no problem getting vessel space for west bound goods and it is now possible to book containers out of China at the last minute. Imagine that! Stay tuned.