Aluminum Price Forecast 2014 Stagnant, China Scrap Rises on Index

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Barclays lowered its 2014 aluminum price forecast, “citing a larger global surplus resulting from higher Chinese domestic output,” according to Reuters. “The investment bank cut its 2014 LME cash price forecast for aluminum to $1,838 per tonne from $2,100.”

That’s pretty much where we are right now with the LME aluminum contract.

“We expect a modest global market surplus to develop in second half of 2013, supported by a seasonal moderation in Northern Hemisphere demand set against capacity ramp-ups in China bolstering production growth,” Barclays said in a note.

That’s, well, also pretty much what’s already happening. Read Lisa Reisman’s recent analysis on aluminum markets.

MetalMiner is currently developing an aluminum forecasting model. Want more info?








What are This Week’s Aluminum Prices?

Following a 5.4 percent decline, Chinese aluminum scrap finished as the week’s biggest mover on the weekly Aluminum MMI®.

* Get the complete prices every day on the MetalMiner IndX℠

The Chinese aluminum cash price declined after drifting 0.7 percent since last week. The price of Chinese aluminum billet fell 0.3 percent. This was the fourth week in a row of declining prices. Prices for Chinese aluminum bar remained constant.

The cash price of primary Indian aluminum closed last week after a 2.5 percent drop. The aluminum 3-month price rose 0.6 percent on the LME to $1,816 per metric ton after falling 0.7 percent during the previous week. The cash price of primary aluminum rose 0.6 percent on the LME to $1,772 per metric ton after falling 0.7 percent during the previous week.

Following a steady week, prices for Korean 3003 coil premium over 1050 sheet, Korean 5052 coil premium over 1050 sheet, European 5083 plate, and European 1050 aluminum did not change since the previous week.

The Aluminum MMI® collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique view into aluminum price trends. For more information on the Aluminum MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.