The monthly Copper MMI® registered a value of 90 in September, an increase of 4.7 percent from 86 in August.
This month’s copper price index jumped by four points from 86 to 90, largely on the back of improved copper LME prices, which feed into US copper producer prices. Stronger prices also received support from improved pricing throughout Asia led by China. We don’t, however, believe the upward price pull reflects improved demand per se; rather, prices tend to follow short-term sentiment.
Already, copper prices have dropped from their mid-August highs as Chinese warehouse inventories have stabilized at 400,000 tons. In addition, copper premiums paid in China have also fallen (rising premiums often lead prices).
“The reality is that short-term positive news impacts day-to-day copper prices,” said Lisa Reisman, managing editor of MetalMiner. “With positive ISM data on the US markets and improved manufacturing activity in Europe and China, the markets jumped, so we still see quite a bit of short-term volatility.”
Our own forecast models highlight this volatility over the coming eight weeks.
After dropping the previous month, the cash price of primary Japanese copper prices rose 6.2 percent to $7,459 per metric ton. The 3-month price of copper rose 4.6 percent over the past month to $7,270 per metric ton, the second straight month of gains. At $7,094 per metric ton, the cash price of primary copper finished the month on the LME 4.3 percent higher. This was the second straight month of declines.
For the second month in a row, the price of Chinese copper wire increased, rising 4.1 percent over the past month to $8,628 per metric ton. At $8,819 per metric ton, the Chinese copper cash price increased 3.8 percent. The price of Chinese bright copper scrap rose 3.6 percent to $7,162 per metric ton after falling the previous month. The price of US copper producer grade 110 rose 2.9 percent to settle at $3.89 per pound. The price of US copper producer grade 102 grew 2.8 percent to finish at $4.08 per pound. The price of Korean copper strip increased only marginally.
The Copper MMI® collects and weights 12 global copper metal price points to provide a unique view into copper price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Copper MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.