Alcoa Hits 18 Month High While Monthly Aluminum Index Climbs

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Metal Prices, Premium

The monthly Aluminum MMI® registered a value of 94 in November, an increase of 1.1 percent from 93 in October.

Aluminum_Chart_November-2013_FNL2a

Yesterday we discussed copper’s psychotic personality – in that the copper price moves from both market reactions as well as supply and demand. Aluminum often works in similar ways.

Many investors find it easier to access the aluminum market through equity plays. Not surprisingly, Alcoa serves as a key player. That company has seen its stock price close at $9.27 on November 1, up from $8.17 30 days prior, a 13.5% increase. On November 4, the stock reached a high of $9.92, a level it hasn’t seen for the last 18 months. So for what it’s worth, investor sentiment seems optimistic.

From a technical analysis perspective (check out MetalMiner’s short-term aluminum forecasting capability), based on certain indicators and the historical patterns that aluminum prices have shown recently, we don’t expect prices to fall through the end of the year.

The Indian aluminum cash price rose 4.3 percent to $1.87 per kilogram after falling the previous month. The cash price of primary aluminum closed the month up 1.7 percent on the LME at $1,833 per metric ton. The 3-month price of aluminum rose 1.4 percent over the past month to $1,876 per metric ton, the second straight month of gains.

European 5083 plate prices fell 5.0 percent to $3,425 per metric ton after rising the previous month. European 1050 aluminum fell 1.6 percent to $2,823 per metric ton. After rising the previous month, Chinese aluminum primary prices dropped 1.0 percent to $2,379 per metric ton. Chinese aluminum billet prices fell 0.3 percent to $2,370 per metric ton after rising the previous month.

The price of Korean 3003 coil premium over 1050 sheet held steady around $3.97 per kilogram last month. Last month was consistent for Korean 5052 coil premium over 1050 sheet, which did not move from $4.11 per kilogram. Chinese aluminum bar held pat last month at $2,329 per metric ton. Hovering around $3.92 per kilogram for the month, Korean 1050 aluminum sheet remained unchanged. Last month was consistent for Chinese aluminum scrap, which did not move from $2,101 per metric ton.

The Aluminum MMI® collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Aluminum MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.

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