Copper Price Outlook for 2014: Long-Term Downtrend

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Copper prices remained pretty flat from August through November. However, last month they started to weaken. The LME 3-month price of primary copper dropped 2.9 percent, from $7,240 to $7,029 per metric ton.

That led to a 2.2 percent drop for MetalMiner’s monthly Copper MMI®, which registered a value of 89 in December, down from 91 in November.

Compare with last month’s trends – here’s our free November MMI® Report.

This move is not a big surprise. Prices topped last month at lower levels than the previous top reached during the month of May. This has been happening since copper prices peaked in the first quarter of 2011. Since then, copper prices remain in a long-term downtrend.

lme copper price chart

Source: LME data, MetalMiner analysis

Looking at the medium-term picture, we see that prices are finding support and resistance levels during the past months. It’s hard to tell what copper prices will average next month. The break of any of the lines in these graphs might determine the next price levels.

So, what’s our outlook?

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