Best of 2013 in Price Forecasting: Steel, Aluminum, Copper, Nickel

metal price forecasting

MetalMiner has been busy in 2013, creating viable short-term metal price forecasting capability for several forms of steel, aluminum, copper and nickel.

Get more info and a sample forecast here.

Enjoy the de Frutos of our labor – here are the best posts from the year:

1. Steel Price Forecast for 2013? Watch Out For Overcapacity

…“Just because capacity utilization is up doesn’t mean the market wants it,” Timna Tanners said [at the Platts Steel Markets North America Conference]. That hearkens back to our steel price index report on Jan. 9, when MetalMiner’s Lisa Reisman said, “we still face a situation of over-supply coming from markets such as China, which will continue to put pressure on steel prices.”

Joe Anton from IHS Global Insights agrees. In response to a MetalMiner question on what the US supply/overcapacity situation looks like, he said that if we were operating in a vacuum, the US could eat up current production rather handily based on current demand; but as long as we continue to import steel from China and elsewhere, this won’t happen…

2. Why Google Fails For Accurate Short-Term Metal Price Forecasts

…Have you ever gone to Google to look for opinions of where prices might go for a particular material, component, or assembly to better time a purchase order? Have you ever placed a forward buy because you thought prices might increase in the next weeks or months – but then after executing a forward buy, prices went the opposite direction?

It’s because of those types of risks that manufacturing companies typically seek two types of price forecasts: long-term forecasts and short-term forecasts. Long-term forecasts tend to help companies during the annual budgeting process, or when negotiating longer-term sales contracts with key customers. Short-term forecasts help companies with the tactical buying needed to meet actual customer demand. What are the key differences between the two when it comes to creating accurate metal price forecasts?…

3. Case Study: Aluminum Price Forecasting a Key Tool For Cost Savings

…Let’s return to our example of a company that typically buys on the spot market, but holds fixed the value-add conversion cost. We’ll say the company purchases 500,000 pounds of aluminum per month (which makes it a relatively substantial buyer).

First, let’s choose a random period of time (we chose Nov. 1, 2010 to Dec. 31, 2010) to analyze what this company might have spent on aluminum if it had a short-term (eight-week) forecast…

4. Copper, Nickel Buyers: What a Technical Price Analysis Tells You

…From a technical analysis viewpoint, looking at the overall picture, copper and nickel prices will likely remain below certain levels. These resistance levels represent price levels where selling pressure overcomes buying pressure. Short-term corrections happen during major trend periods. This means that we can see a short upward trend inside a major downward trend and vice versa…

Don’t forget your sample forecast!

And if you’re into some current metal price analysis, here’s our latest report.

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