Why Our 2014 Copper Price Forecast Is Bearish

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Copper_Chart_January-2014_FNL

MetalMiner’s monthly Copper MMI® was the best performing of the metal price index series this month, registering a value of 92 in January, an increase of 3.4 percent from 89 in December.

Compare with last month’s trends – here’s our free December MMI® Report.

The LME 3-month price of primary went up 4.9 percent, from $7,029 to $7,370 per metric ton. Copper moved up after meeting support levels at the end of November, drawing a modest uptrend since June.

LME-copper-prices-2013

However, looking at the long-term picture, so far we just see this mid-term uptrend as a retracing of the overall falling trend:

lme-copper-prices-2010-2013

We expect copper to keep gaining support in the short term, but likely finding resistance around $7,500 per metric ton. In the long term, with the picture looking pretty similar for the rest of the base metals, we are copper-bearish.

What This Means For Metal Buyers 

Despite rising prices in previous months, it may seem risky for copper buyers to take long positions in presence of an overall falling market.

Key Price Drivers

The price of US copper producer grade 110 finished the month up 6.2 percent, while grade 102 reached a 5.9 percent increase. It was a strong month for the Japanese copper cash price. The metal posted a 5.7 percent increase.

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The primary copper cash price closed the month at $7,387 per metric ton after gaining 5.1 percent on the LME. After dropping the previous month, the Chinese copper cash price prices rose 2.8 percent. The price of Chinese copper wire rose 2.5 percent after falling the previous month.

Chinese bright copper scrap fell 0.3 percent. Korean copper strip experienced a flat month.

Don’t forget to read December 2013 MMI analysis before January’s full report comes out next week!

The Copper MMI® collects and weights 12 global copper metal price points to provide a unique view into copper price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Copper MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.