Tin Price Outlook 2014: A Struggle to Go Higher

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From a supply and demand perspective, tin is in deficit and most analysts argue that demand will keep exceeding supply in 2014. This might help explain why tin has performed better than other industrial metals during the past few years.

Regardless of supply and demand fundamentals, tin, like any industrial metal, peaked in 2011 as key drivers pushed industrial metals down.

3-Month LME Tin prices since 2011

3-month tin price on the LME since 2011.

Since the beginning of 2012, tin has been trading sideways (fluctuating up and down in horizontal direction). Since tin is trending nowhere in particular, it is hard to tell where prices will head in 2014.

However, despite the tin deficit, we believe that tin has more potential on the downside than on the upside. While the rest of the base metals complex keeps trending downward, it is hard to see tin prices trading above $25,000 per metric ton.

What This Means For Metal Buyers

Despite efforts of tin prices to go higher, prices seem to keep struggling to go above $25,000 per metric ton. With all base metals trending down, we don’t expect tin prices to trade well above today’s levels, at least, until the picture changes.

Read more from Raul de Frutos.

Compare with our past tin coverage:

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