Tin Price Forecast: A Stubborn Resistance Level Requires a Wait-and-See Approach

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Tin on the London Metal Exchange remained pretty flat this month… for the eighth consecutive month.

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Tin is struggling to reach new highs, finding strong resistance at $24,000. Although the supply and demand balance looks tight, it seems to be failing to push prices higher. In January 2012, prices peaked at $25,500 and, since then, tin hasn’t been able to reach those levels again.

3M LME Tin price since 2011

3M LME Tin price since 2011

Tin remains in a falling market and as we pointed out a few months ago, until the trend changes, we wouldn’t suggest buyers take long-term positions as we might see more to come on the downside.

3M LME Tin price since 2013

3M LME Tin price since 2013

These periods of contracted volatility are usually followed by big moves. If Tin breaks its resistance level, we would expect it to go higher, potentially reaching a 3-year high. Therefore, we would recommend buyers wait for market action before making early decisions. Prices breaking above $24,000 would be a good point to start hedging. Until that happens, we don’t see any need to take long-term positions.

What This Means For Metal Buyers

Tin prices remain flat, but at some point prices will make a move. We recommend buyers wait until we see price strength before taking positions. If prices succeed to break above $24,000, that would be the point to start hedging. Meanwhile, wait it out and ride the falling trend.

 

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