A Q4 Bottom Coming for Coking Coal? Steel Still Stagnant

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Seaborne coking coal contract prices are seen likely to bottom at $118/million tons in the fourth quarter before starting to pick up in 2015 tracking an uptick in China’s property market, ANZ’s Head of Commodities Research Mark Pervan told the International Mining and Resources Conference in Melbourne Tuesday, September 23.

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“We are not going to see a strong recovery story. There is still a lot of supply there and Chinese demand is not going to take off,” he said, according to Platts.

“The current spot price is around $113/mt and the current contact is at $120/mt. We expect to see maybe $1-2/mt to be taken off that before we see a bit of recovery in 2015.”

Dropping 1.1 percent on the LME, the steel billet cash price was the biggest mover on Wednesday, September 24, closing at $450.00 per metric ton. The 3-month price of steel billet saw little movement on the LME at $455.00 per metric ton.

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Chinese steel prices were flat for the day. The price of iron ore 58% fines from India hit a high price of CNY 840.00 ($136.90) and a low price of CNY 830.00 ($135.27) per dry metric ton. Chinese HRC stayed flat at around CNY 3,030 ($493.82) per metric ton. The price of Chinese coking coal continues hovering around CNY 1,390 ($226.54) per metric ton for the fifth day in a row.

The spot price of the US HRC futures contract gained 0.8 percent, closing at $660.00 per short ton. After three essentially changeless days, the 3-month price of the US HRC futures contract dropped 0.2 percent on Wednesday to $641.00 per short ton.

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