Tin prices took a hit recently, declining almost 10% in the past 2 months. Not only tin, but every base metal fell, too, as the US Dollar surged.  Tin remains rangebound, but in the low end of that range.

3M LME tin price since 2013

Although some were expecting a deficit this year, it looks like China has been fulfilling its role as a swing producer as its exports have increased, helping to keep balance on the supply side.

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There are different opinions on the future supply/demand balance. What is clear is that the marketplace is not showing high expectations on tin and therefore we wouldn’t recommend buyers to go long into weakness.

Tin might not be able to advance for awhile. Prices moving above $24,000/ton would be a signal that the market is turning more optimistic on tin, and therefore a good point to start buying/hedging. Unless that happens, a strong dollar and the continued weakness in commodities might keep this metal within its boundaries, or at even lower levels.