Rare Earth Metals Price Forecast: Will Cerium, Yttrium Demand Boost Future Prices?

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Rare-Earths_Chart_December-2014_FNL

As MetalMiner‘s monthly Rare Earths MMI® steadied at a value of 23 in December, we put the Rare Earths “Celebrity Deathmatch” between Jack Lifton and Dudley Kingsnorth on hold. Some interest-piquing information surrounding the rare earth metals price outlook and forecast has come to our attention, via our friend (and Lifton’s colleague) Gareth Hatch of Technology Metals Research.

REE Supply, Demand, Pricing 2014-2020

Recently Gareth covered the rare earths outlook on his blog, specifically from the comprehensive, no-stones-unturned viewpoint of Ryan Castilloux of Adamas Intelligence (573 report pages’ worth!). “2014 marks the dawn of a cautious revival for the rare earth industry,” Castilloux said in a video produced by Hatch and TMR.

Key takeaways, as presented in the visual below:

  • Adamas sees China’s demand for REs to rise through 2020, while their share of production declines and the rest of the world’s production increases (we’ve been hearing this for a while, namely from the Lynas Corp. and Molycorp defenders; that remains to be seen)
  • From 2014 through 2020, Adamas is forecasting increased demand for neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium, among others
  • The firm is also seeing tight markets for neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium, lanthanum, and yttrium
  • Cerium oxide, a glut of which has been hanging over the RE market, is forecast to remain in surplus (“major over-supply,” according to Adamas)
global-total-rare-earth-oxide-consumption-demand-sourceTMR

Image Source: TMR

The good news overall, according to Gareth? “The market and prices are set to bounce back, particularly in the face of growing demand for individual rare earths, for specific applications.”

Greater Cerium, Yttrium Demand?

That growing overall RE demand, according to both Gareth and Ryan Castilloux, will come in part from growing applications and end-usability for both cerium and yttrium. Castilloux covered 3 of them in-depth in another video:

  • PVC Stabilizers
  • Remote-Phosphor LED Lamps
  • Yttrium Barium Copper Oxide (YBCO) Superconductors

If your buying organization has a significant rare earths spend, we’d recommend checking out TMR and Adamas Intelligence in greater depth. If you’d like to track RE prices daily, weekly and monthly, you’re in the right place:

This Month’s Exact RE Prices

After dropping the previous month, the price of terbium oxide prices rose 9.6% to $463.06 per kilogram. The price of dysprosium oxide rose 5.6% to $243.71 per kilogram after falling the previous month. After dropping the previous month, the price of terbium metal prices rose 5.6% to $617.41 per kilogram.

The price of europium oxide fell 13.6% to $308.70 per kilogram. Praseodymium oxide prices dropped by 11.3% this month to $69,865 per metric ton. The price of cerium oxide closed the month at $2,031 per metric ton after dropping 10.7%. At $2,762 per metric ton, samarium oxide was down 8.1% for the month. Yttria prices fell 8.1% to $5,524 per metric ton. A 7.1% drop over the past month left lanthanum oxide at $2,112 per metric ton. After falling 3.4%, neodymium finished the month at $56,054 per metric ton. Following a 3.3% decline in price, neodymium oxide finished the month at $43,219 per metric ton. Praseodymium neodymium oxide closed the month at $44,843 per metric ton after dropping 1.4%.

At a price of $4,062 per metric ton, rare earth carbonate did not budge the entire month. Yttrium held pat last month at $43.87 per kilogram.

Compare with last month’s trends – here’s our free November MMI® Report.

The Rare Earths MMI® collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a unique view into rare earth metal price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Rare Earths MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.

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