Whatever your holiday movie preferences, lead buyers need to know where the metal they’re pumping will be coming from.
By analyzing and understanding these price drivers, buyers will be ready to react when the market gives clear signs that a new uptrend is developing and stay hedged as long as the trend is in place – until there is evidence that the trend is over.
Below is an excerpt from our recent report, “2015 Metal Buying Outlook: What Can We Expect for Base Metal and Steel Prices Over the Next 12 Months?”
MetalMiner’s Lead Price Outlook 2015
The lead price outlook is quite neutral. Since the start of 2014, we recommended our members not go long on lead unless prices managed to break above $2,310/mt, which they haven’t. (To the contrary, they crashed over the month of December 2014 – here’s the latest on that.)
Most analysts agree that lead’s fundamentals are bullish as the market is expected to move further into deficit. However, our view differs. Although it might be true that the fundamentals could be improving, it is hard to tell what has already been discounted in the price.
What we can see is that commodities remain in bearish mode and that is weighing down lead prices, which keep trading sideways. Despite lead’s good performance in the first half of 2014, the second half of the year has proven that lead prices are not able to significantly rise while investors keep money out of the commodities market.
For 2015, we recommend lead buyers hedge only if prices cross above $2,310/mt.*
* Why $2,310/mt? Whether you make bullets or batteries, as the market moves, so do our exact price targets in MetalMiner’s monthly lead forecast – start your free trial.
Or if you buy other metals, download the complete report by filling out the form below: