Turbulence Ahead: A Weaker US Dollar Might Help Commodities in the Second Quarter

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For the first time in almost a year, the US dollar index is experiencing some turbulence.

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For the past two weeks the index is trading sideways. Still, the long-term trend is clearly up and we doubt this is a major top for the dollar. However, its sharp advance during 2014 certainly leaves the currency vulnerable to some profit-taking.

Weakness in the dollar is giving support to commodity prices. After a steep decline during the second half of 2014, commodities are now stabilizing. A weaker dollar during the past few months also explains recent upturns in stock markets tied to commodities such as Russia, Canada and Brazil.

Further weakness in the dollar throughout the rest of the year would give a bigger boost to commodities and these foreign markets.

Metals Still Bearish

Industrial metals haven’t really received a boost during the last few months. Although some base metals rose we also saw others recently fall to record lows. Worth mentioning, however, is oil prices climbing to their highest levels this year ($58 a barrel).

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