Most of our commodity metals posted gains this month. Even laggards such as the Construction and Raw Steels MMIs were able to post at least a flat month and avoid a loss. Only the markets that were generally flat to down before commodities’ big downturn, Rare Earths and Renewables, lost ground this month.
The big question, is, then are these metals’ prices truly going back up or are we merely experiencing temporary gains with the downward trend soon to continue? It honestly may be too soon to tell.
We have seen several commodities fall much lower this year after outside-influenced one-month rallies. As my colleague Raul de Frutos wrote regarding the copper market this month, “we know that trying to guess the bottom is a terrible strategy to take.”
The Dollar and Oil Prices
The big outside influence, of course, is actual weakness in the US dollar, the first real weakness seen this year.
The oil price reduction that has kept most commodities low this year has moderated, with oil hitting $60 a barrel this week. A 0.7% fall in the dollar index was the biggest drop of 2015.
Further weakness in the dollar throughout the rest of the year would give a bigger boost to commodities and foreign markets.
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