China has changed its tack on steel exports.
In previous years it has sought a more conciliatory position to complaints by trade partners, a WSJ article says in the past CISA, China’s steel trade association, has sought to persuade local steel mills to curb exports and show restraint but this year, in the face of an unprecedented surge in volumes, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang is quoted as taking a much more defensive line saying the rise in steel exports is due to higher global demand and is a result of Chinese steel products having strong “export competitiveness.”
Chinese Now Say Exports ‘Justifiable’
Set against a backdrop of the EU’s recent investigation into dumping of cold-rolled coil from China and Russia, Shen is reported to have come out fighting, saying “Under such circumstances (demand and competitive pricing), I feel that it’s quite normal for Chinese steel exports to these countries to be rising, and it’s quite justifiable.”
Meanwhile, the WSJ adds the US, Australia and South Korea have also signaled that they are lining up support for trade action against Chinese steel exports, which rose by 50.5% last year to a record 93.8 million metric tons and have continued at a high level this year.
Chinese steel mills are on a roll according to data reported by the WSJ. Between September last year and January this year, the volume of China’s outbound steel shipments each month shattered the preceding month’s record. While in the first four months of 2015, steel exports were 32.7% higher than a year earlier.
The reason isn’t hard to find, domestic steel prices in China have been on a slide as demand has collapsed. According to a Bloomberg article Infrastructure and construction together account for about two thirds of China’s steel demand, citing HSBC research, and construction is slow as housing prices fall there.
Construction Slump Continues
New home prices slid in 69 of the 70 cities tracked by the government in April from a year earlier, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. As a result construction-related steel prices such as rebar have hit their lowest level since 2003.
What’s worse is the peak buying period for the construction sector is now in the past and demand would fall for seasonal reasons even if construction was strong. According to Reuters, prices have dropped 13% so far this year with the most-traded rebar futures contract for October settlement on the Shanghai Futures Exchange down to 2,355 yuan ($379.71) per ton, while MetalMiner’s own China tracking service has recorded a 16% fall in domestic steel prices this year from 2,810 yuan/mt at the beginning of the year to 2,340 yuan now.
What is Chinese ‘Cost?’
Such a slump in prices has aided steel mills in their drive to dump excess capacity overseas. Is it below cost? What is the cost price in China? what are a mill’s true costs for state enterprises that receive all kinds of support both at the regional and state level?
Steel mills are under pressure to close excess capacity but so far the result has been limited, excess capacity is being offered for export rather than any real attempt made to exercise market discipline and shutter plants. The trend is likely to get worse before it gets better, particularly if Beijing’s hard line continues, we can expect more trade disputes and possibly lower prices in the year ahead.