Could Nickel Really Fall Below $10,000 a Metric Ton?

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Nickel on the London Metal Exchange fell to a fresh low this week, trading as low as $10,440 per metric ton on Tuesday.

Free Download: July Metal Price Forecast

The metal is experiencing huge sell-offs as the Chinese stock market plunges. We can’t really put all the blame on nickel since this is not the only metal falling. Weakness in China and a strong dollar keep punishing commodities and, even more stridently, industrial metals.

Stainless_Chart_July-2015_FNL

The monthly Stainless MMI® registered a value of 68 in July, a decrease of 6.8% from 73 in June.

Bearish Fundamentals, Too

Nickel’s supply and demand fundamentals, however, agree with the bearish picture the market is painting. We see a couple of factors weighing on prices:

  • First, the Indonesian government banned unprocessed mineral exports in January. The ban on unprocessed nickel and aluminum exports still remains in place. However, after the country already relaxed restrictions on exports of copper, the Indonesian government is considering a relaxation of export restrictions on aluminum and it’s possible that nickel will be the next unprocessed ore to have its ban lifted.
  • Second, most analysts were expecting that LME stockpiles would level off. However, nickel stockpiles surged in June, adding to concerns that production is outstripping consumption. Although we’ve pointed out before that there is not always a good correlation between stockpiles and metal prices, many people might be pointing out that the underlying demand isn’t that strong.

What This Means For Metal Buyers

As nickel free-falls, prices are approaching the record low levels of 2009. Nickel could be the first base metal hit that floor. Nickel would have to fall another 17%, but with the pace we are seeing prices falling, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this happen at some point…

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