Renewables MMI® Holds Steady as Solar Prices Start to Resemble Reality

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Solar PV array

After months of rancorous trade battles, a funny thing happened to the crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic panel market. Prices in market leader Europe suddenly went up. For the first time in a decade.

Free Download: July Metal Price Forecast

Prices for solar panels in the European spot market have risen by about 6% so far this year, according to pvXchange, a solar market consultancy based in Bremen, Germany.

Renewables_Chart_July-2015_FNLFlat is the New Up!

Our monthly Renewables MMI® doesn’t track panel prices per se, only the silicon raw material that goes into them, but still registered a value of 58 in July, on par with June’s value. Flat is the new up in this bearish commodity market.

Despite the modesty of the increase, it’s a huge turning point for European solar as the increase represents an abrupt reversal of historical trends. In 2011, the average price of a solar panel in Europe fell by nearly one-third compared to the previous year. In 2012, solar panel prices in Europe plunged by nearly another third. Just last year, the price of a solar panel in Europe fell by more than 14% compared to the previous year.

What’s even more astounding is that this increase could have been caused by the real price of silicon finally being quoted in a majority of European retailers. We have long lamented that government subsidies for both silicon exports in China and for local solar installation in destination markets have artificially eroded the price of silicon.

Tariffs to the Rescue?

A trade war was waged in the US largely between Germany’s Solarworld, Inc., and small Chinese manufacturers who received government support for silicon exports at home and possible kickbacks abroad from installers who specified their thin-film products over higher-quality silicon products from companies such as SolarWorld. The real price fight, though, was always in Europe where solar could make up 12% of power generation by 2030.

The European Commission renewed their own tariffs on Chinese silicon recently and it looks like those duties were finally enough to keep the cheap imports out of their markets. A robust European solar market is good news for silicon refiners and producers such as Solarworld as higher prices mean more profitability for them.

It’s too early to tell if this turnaround will ever be felt in the highly subsidized the US market, but it’s certainly a good sign.

The Renewables MMI® collects and weights 8 metal price points used extensively within the renewable energy industry to provide a unique view into renewable energy metal price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Renewables MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.

 

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