1. Dollar to Euro exchange rate
2. Indonesian export quantities
3. Chinese tin ore imports
4. Global Production
Tin has not had a good year. Prices have fallen 24% year-to-date after falling 15% in 2014. All base metals have fallen this year (and continue to fall) but at least a couple have attempted to show some price strength. Tin has been unable to rally at all for the past 18 months. A sideways market for tin would be a big improvement.
Moreover, the Indonesian tin export restrictions have essentially backfired. The limit of 4,500 metric tons per month, set to go into effect in April never happened. In fact, according to Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade, the country actually exported close to 6,300 metric tons in May.
Indonesian producers expected prices to rebound to $20,000 in the second half of the year against production cut backs. That scenario seems unlikely as tin is trading closer to $14,000/mt this month, below producers’ operating costs of more than $16,000/mt.
Three-month tin fell in June, closing at $13,880/mt. Prices continue to free-fall and tin is now at its lowest level in 6 years. Tin is not the only metal at a 6-year low – this is not a coincidence in bearish markets. Tin however, is the worst performer among industrial metals. The long-term outlook remains bearish until we see signs of an upturn.
What Should My Industrial Buying Strategy Be?
This tin price forecast was excerpted from our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds, consult the July 2015 report!