Nonresidential Construction Spending Will Increase 9% in 2015, 8.2% Next Year

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The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of several construction forecasters, is projecting that nonresidential spending will see a nearly 9% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection being 8.2%.

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To see each of the panelist’s projections, click here.

“Buoyed mostly by the red-hot commercial sector, spending on nonresidential buildings should be close to $360 billion this year, approaching $390 billion in 2016,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But the demographic factors that are also fueling heavy demand for healthcare and education facilities are going to lead to a more balanced construction market in the foreseeable future.”

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Nonresidential construction is more tech-intensive than most residential structures and generally requires more copper wiring, aluminum conduit and other metal building materials. Commercial and industrial construction leads the group with a 12.3% spending increase for the year and 10.6% for 2016.

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2015    2016
Overall nonresidential building 8.9%   8.2%
Commercial / industrial 12.3% 10.6%
Industrial facilities 21.9% 9.9%
Office buildings 14.7% 11.7%
Hotels 13.3% 12.4%
Retail 10.4% 8.9%
Institutional 2.8%   5.6%
Amusement / recreation 14.3% 5.9%
Healthcare facilities 2.4% 5.8%
Education 1.5% 5.9%
Public safety -1.9% 2.9%
Religious -5.3% 1.5%

About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, CMD Group, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.

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