September Aluminum Price Forecast: Chinese Exports Hit 14-Month Low

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September begins with rather remarkable aluminum price forecast news as China’s exports of the metal fell to their lowest mark since June 2014, due in part to a decline in domestic production and global prices.

Bloomberg Business, citing China customs data, reported that aluminum shipments declined 5 percent to 340,000 tons in August, month-over-month, and declined 12 percent, year-over-year. Meanwhile, aluminum production in China fell 1.3 percent month-over-month from June to July.

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China is the world’s largest supplier of aluminum, and that decline signals that these bottomed-out prices forced the nation’s smelters to decrease output.

“Global prices have lost about 13 percent this year and premiums, the amount customers have to pay on top of exchange prices, dropped to a three-year low in the U.S. last week,” Martin Ritchie wrote for Bloomberg.

All commodities fall as traders feel the brunt

We reported last week that major players in the aluminum trade, Noble Group and Glencore PLC are feeling the brunt of falling commodity prices. Although traders can still prosper no matter the direction of the market, that doesn’t always occur as practice and theory don’t align every time. Across Europe and Asia, including Japan, aluminum premiums are trading at incredibly low levels with big traders currently sitting on their stock.

You can find a more in-depth aluminum price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

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