The Automotive MMI fell again in October, inching down 1.4% from its previous all-time low of 73.
It’s more of the same for an automotive metals market that, while strong on both the supply and demand sides here in the US, is being dragged down by falling demand in other large markets. Automotive specialty metals have been cited as the savior and the future demand driver for many a steel or aluminum company in this bear market.
Gerdau is practically staking its entire Indian business on it. Aerospace and automotive are also regularly cited as the growth markets for stainless and aluminum overseas, too. The aluminum-bodied Ford F-150 continues to be the darling of the US automotive market with its lighter corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) load and its Denis Leary commercials about “military-grade” aluminum. Even the Super Duty is getting in on aluminum. The emerging markets were on the aluminum train before Ford was, too, and that trend is only growing.
US, European Auto Sales
So, what gives?
In September, US vehicle sales topped a SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of 18 million vehicles. Leading automakers reported the healthy year-over-year increase in sales number thanks, in part, to big gains over the Labor Day holiday weekend.
It wasn’t just us yanks buying cars constructed cold from specialty metals, either. The Czech Republic will report its highest car sales ever this year. The Volkswagen scandal might be hurting platinum prices but it’s clearly not denting overall vehicle sales, even in Europe where the scandal hits close to home with more diesel cars on the road.
VW has a market share of around 48% in the Czech Republic, a country of roughly 10.5 million people, with the company’s domestic maker Skoda Auto the top seller.
Chinese Demand Collapses
The fly in the automotive metals ointment is demand in China. Like steel, aluminum and other markets, the economic collapse in China has eroded what was once healthy automotive – and automotive metal – demand there.
The urbanization that economists counted on to fuel more Chinese car purchases went away with housing demand there, as well as the un-manipulated renminbi. Beijing is looking entirely to exports now (hence the purposeful devaluation) to pull its economy out of the doldrums, and isn’t even trying to goose those domestic markets much.
Sad to say, but no matter how strong the US or European automotive markets are, they can’t make up for the loss of Chinese demand, which numbers sales (and people) in the neighborhood of a billion. That’s one of the reasons so many steel companies are looking to India, with its large population, to make up for that demand. The problem there is India’s urbanization isn’t as far along as China’s was. Still, automakers and steel companies such as Gerdau are digging in there for the long haul. Here’s to hoping it’s not as long as some predict.
Actual Automotive Metal Prices
- US platinum bar prices fell a whopping 10.02% from $1,007 in September to $906 per bar after news of the VW scandal broke.
- US HDG fell .9% from $567 per metric ton to $562 per metric ton this month.
- US shredded scrap plummeted 11.6%, down to $214 from $242