February Nickel Price Forecast: World Bank Lowers Price Projection

stainless-nickel-L1The World Bank has forecast a 15% decline in nickel market prices, which means uncertainty for one Finnish mine that produces nickel as its main output.

Terrafame, the state-owned company operating the Talvivaara mine in eastern Finland, has reinforced that it will stick to its optimistic price projections for nickel and move forward with its business and financial planning despite the World Bank’s projections.

“Our business plan is based on (nickel prices) rising to about $16,000 per metric ton by 2020, which is the World Bank’s forecast,” Terrafame board chair Lauri Ratia told Yle News in August. “If we stick to this framework, then we will be able to achieve a positive cash flow by the end of 2017 into 2018.”

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The World Bank recently adjusted its nickel forecast from summer 2015. Last month, World Bank estimated the nickel price in 2020 would be about 15% lower than they projected it would be last year. However, Terrafame is holding strong on its positive cash flow projections for 2017-2018 despite the World Bank’s updated forecast.

Not a Good Start to 2016 For Nickel

Of all industrial metals, nickel fared the worst in 2015 and it continues on that path two months into 2016. Our own Raul de Frutos stated that other industrial metals were stabilized by the weaker dollar in February, but that was not the case for nickel.

“Not even a weak dollar stopped nickel from hitting new lows,” de Frutos wrote on February 17. “Three-month nickel traded down to $7,550 per metric ton last week, its lowest level in nearly 13 years.”

You can find a more in-depth nickel price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. Check it out to receive short- and long-term buying strategies with specific price thresholds.

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