India’s Iron Ore Oversupply Problem Won’t End Soon

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Huge inventory levels and increased production are not helping India’s iron ore mining sector.

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According to a recent report by credit rating agency ICRA, India’s iron ore prices are not likely to recover in the near future. On the other hand, steel companies would benefit from this development in the short term. They were likely to enjoy “better profitability” due to improved steel prices in the current year, supported by imposition of minimum import price (MIP) by the government.

Production Up, Prices Down

India’s iron ore production in 2015-16 was at 155 million metric tons, registering an annual growth rate of 23%, ICRA said in a statement. Much of the incremental production in iron ore was because of stepped up mining in the Indian state of Odisha. In the current fiscal, ICRA said, India’s iron ore output could be somewhere in the range of 170-175 mmt.

The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI), on the other hand, was of the view though that the Indian iron ore export mining industry needed tax relief to compete internationally after an absence of approximately four years when mining was largely banned in many Indian states.

Speaking at an iron ore conference in Singapore recently, R.K. Sharma, Secretary-general of FIMI said it would “challenging” to restart some of the mines after they have been shuttered for four years.

According to ICRA Corporate Sector Ratings Senior VP Jayanta Roy, because of the substantial iron ore inventory levels at existing mines and the fact that India’s iron ore production was slated to increase further, domestic iron ore prices are unlikely to recover meaningfully in the near term, which benefits local steel mills.

Post minimum-import-price, Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have seen a sharp increase of about 25% from the lows reached in February 2016, according to ICRA’s quarterly research report on the steel industry. Industry players saw additional gains due to an increase in sales volumes, as imports were likely to reduce in the current year.

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The MIP is scheduled to expire in the second quarter of the India’s fiscal year (April 1 to March 31), but according to analysts, the present level of international prices and the extension of a safeguard duty by the Indian Government to March 2018, could continue to boost prices and prospects for Indian steel producers.

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