Our Global Precious Metals MMI took a slight step backward this September, coming in at a value of 85 — a 4.5% drop from the previous month’s 89.
However, the latter half of the summer has been kind to the gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices we track, with the past three months representing the highest MMI values of the entire calendar year.
All four precious categories tracked by the MetalMiner IndX softened over the month of August for our September 1 reading, contributing to the overall 4-point decline.
Main Index Drivers: Platinum and Palladium Prices
In a forthcoming MetalMiner analysis, my colleague Stuart Burns will share his findings from interviewing Trevor Raymond, director of research at the World Platinum Investment Council. The main takeaway? That the platinum market is like a “ticking time bomb.”
Essentially, the global platinum market has been in deficit for five years running, with mine strikes and shortfalls leading the way into a supply-side headache for the industry. Demand, meanwhile, appears robust, according to WPIC’s data and quarterly reports, led by developments on the heels of Volkswagen‘s diesel scandal, China and India’s jewelry desires, and a potentially interesting knock-on effect from rising oil prices.
However, the investment community will likely be the prime driver of PGM price movements in the future; but whether it’s a chicken-and-egg situation — rising prices spurring investment activity, or vice versa — remains to be seen.
Secondary Driver: Gold Prices
According to a recent release by Sprott Asset Management, “August marked the fourth successive month that gold prices rose in contrast to the dollar — something that has not occurred since metal peaked five years ago amidst the global financial crisis.
Demand is now at a four-year high with metal displaying one of its best yearly performances since the 1970s. Due to the rise of negative interest rates and a more volatile market, gold is looking like a safe bet for many investors,” right alongside platinum, it would seem; with a secondary positive aspect of the latter being its industrial element.
“As a result of sluggish global economic growth, central banks are pushing interest rates into negative territory, which is positive for gold,” according to Senior Portfolio Manager Paul Wong, along with the Sprott Asset Management precious metals team. “We are likely in the early stages of the current gold bull market, driven by a global push to a negative interest rate policy, currency volatility and a high level of cross-asset class correlation.”
My colleague and our in-house metals procurement specialist and analyst, Raul de Frutos, agrees — see his most recent report on the gold market.