Lead Price Forecast, September 2016: Supply Exceeds Demand So Far this Year

Macro photo of a piece of lead ore
Macro photo of a piece of lead ore

New data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group finds that world refined lead metal supply exceeded demand during the first seven months this year. Over the same time frame, total reported stock levels increased, as well.

The ILZSG report also found that global lead mine production decreased 5.6% when compared to the same time period in 2015, mainly due to reduced production in the U.S., India and Australia.

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Meanwhile, a boost in world refined lead metal output of 0.7% was mostly due to growth in Canada, the Republic of Korea and Kazakhstan, which partly offset the reduction seen in China.

The report stated: “European usage of refined lead metal increased by 9.4% mainly due to increased demand in Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom. In contrast apparent usage in China fell by 6.4% and in the United States, was at the same level as during the first seven months of 2015.”

Last, Chinese imports of lead in lead concentrates fell 13.3% year-over-year.

Lead, Pher Base Metals to Fall Next Year?

Our own Raul de Frutos wrote this week that since metal prices bottomed out earlier this year, we’ve seen rising prices. But was what we saw the result of five years of a bear market, and are metal prices primed to continue their ascent in 2017?

de Frutos cites three critical factors to watch for in 2017 that will determine the sustainability of this year’s bull market. They are:

  1. Supply cuts
  2. Chinese stimulus measures
  3. The U.S. dollar

How will lead and base metals fare for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

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