Aluminum Price Forecast, October 2016: Trading with Downside Bias

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Long row of rolls of aluminum in production shop of plant.

Long row of rolls of aluminum in production shop of plant.

Tuesday this week, aluminum prices traded with downside bias due in part to a rising dollar when compared to rival currencies, but that wasn’t the only major news to be found in the industry.

Alcoa, Inc., reported its third quarter earnings, which revealed a decrease in revenue while reducing its revenue targets due to lower aluminum prices and a shift in aerospace delivery schedules.

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It wasn’t all bad news for Alcoa, however, as the company reported profit improvement on a year-over-year basis.

Still, it is becoming more evident that conditions for the aluminum market remain challenging.

“Alcoa has moved to trim the costs of its aluminum production by shuttering its higher-cost U.S. facilities. Cheaper, more plentiful aluminum production from Chinese aluminum smelters have caused major struggles for North American aluminum companies. This has resulted in many cutbacks, and now North American production of primary aluminum is running at its lowest levels since 1983,” wrote Donald Levit for the Economic Calendar.

Aluminum MMI up in September

Our own Raul de Frutos wrote this week that our Aluminum MMI climbed 4% last month with prices for the metal rising above $1,600 per metric ton.

“However, we still need to see if this will surpass stiff resistance at $1,700/mt, a level that aluminum hasn’t overcome in more than a year,” de Frutos concluded.

How will aluminum and base metals fare for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:


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