Aluminum Price Forecast, January 2017: Beginning the Year on an Uptick

To begin 2017, aluminum prices inched higher with the U.S. dollar retreating and traders awaiting clarity on the market.
According to a recent report from the Economic Calendar, downward pressure on aluminum has been the story since December, but over the course of 2016 the metal saw a 13% increase. The reason? falling supply with the closure of capacity while demand grew as the result of China’s infrastructure initiatives.
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Donald Levit, writing for the Economic Calendar, said: “Even though it is typical for aluminum prices to retreat in late fall and winter, prices held steady through mid-December after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November. Trump made a campaign promise to move to further stimulate the U.S. economy, and that stimulus could potentially include infrastructure spending. That would boost aluminum demand.”
What does 2017 have in store for aluminum prices? Volatility could be the word with traders attempting to assess how the market will evolve as the year progresses.

The Auto Industry and Aluminum

Our own Raul de Frutos echoed the sentiments of aluminum’s struggles in December after a 2016 of growth. But what does the auto industry have to do with it? Raul writes:
“The auto industry is a key driver of aluminum demand. Auto sales in US and China (the world’s biggest car market) finished the year on a strong note. Total vehicle sales in the U.S. hit an 11-year high in December, aided by a fourth-quarter surge in demand that exceeded expectations. In China, car sales hit an all-time record in November, up 17.1% year-on-year.”
How will aluminum and base metals fare in 2017? You can find a more in-depth copper price forecast and outlook in our brand new Monthly Metal Buying Outlook report. For a short- and long-term buying strategy with specific price thresholds:

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