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The Aluminum MMI increased eight points from last month’s reading, reaching its highest value since September 2014.
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This rise does not come as a surprise to MetalMiner, as aluminum was the strongest performer in August, increasing by 10.73% during the month.
Aluminum has awakened from its previous sideways trend and now continues its previous uptrend.
Source: MetalMiner analysis of Fastmarkets
Some analysts do not expect more movements to the upside, as the supply and demand equation appears unclear. Positive data and increasing demand in China have supported aluminum prices so far.
However, Morningstar forecasts a decrease in Chinese demand. Meanwhile, Indian demand may not increase quickly enough to balance global demand.
On the supply side, Chinese curtailment of capacity remains uncertain. Similar to steel, the real impact of curtailments on production remain to be seen.
“Green” aluminum appears to be a new trend among buying organizations. The difference lies in the use of renewable energy instead of fossil fuels in the smelting process. Premium prices have risen for this type of aluminum as demand continues to rise due to pressure on buying organizations to lower their carbon footprint.
What This Means for Industrial Buyers
MetalMiner believes that aluminum has broken a ceiling that it previously could not break.
The sideways trend that started at the beginning of this year served as a pause in a bullish market, which has just restarted. Trading volumes have supported this late uptrend, which makes the uptrend stronger.
Thus, buying organizations might expect more upward movements in the upcoming months.
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Actual Aluminum Prices and Trends
LME aluminum has increased by 10.73%, with a closing price in August of $2,130/metric ton.
Chinese primary aluminum reached $2,460.98/mt, while Chinese aluminum bar increased by 19.2% to $2,582.36/mt. Chinese aluminum scrap prices increased by 13.82% to $2,200.01/mt, while European 1050 sheet rose by 7% to $2,925.14/mt.