GOES MMI: Increasing GOES Imports Tells an Incomplete Story

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The September GOES MMI increased by a full 12 points, reaching 193. Market observers can note with interest that this rise comes on the back of increasing GOES imports, as noted by Roger Newport, CEO of AK Steel, on a recent earnings call.

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Unlike other steel markets, when sudden large volumes of imports begin to arrive typically a big spread exists (the price between the domestic and international markets).

In this case, something else appears to explain the volume of imports into the U.S.

When we examine the total volume of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) imports into the U.S., indeed, the assertion of increased import volumes appears correct:

But when we look at what is driving those imports, we come to a different conclusion – that Japanese GOES imports have led the increase (and in fact account for 55% of GOES imports):

One could argue these imports hardly appear “dumped” the average price for Japanese material at $2627/metric ton appears just under the MetalMiner domestic M3 spot price. In fact, by our own analysis of import prices, the average import price of Japanese material for the last six months has only diverged from our M3 spot index by no more than $68/mt, and in one month was more expensive by $64/mt!

It’s hard to see how GOES has been “dumped” into the U.S. market.

Moreover, the industry knows the Japanese produce the more technically advanced grades that allow manufacturing organizations to produce to higher efficiency standards.

Meanwhile, China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel increased GOES domestic prices seven times since the beginning of the year, according to a recent TEX Report. The same report indicates Japanese mills have held prices fairly steady.

The Section 232 investigation remains ongoing, with a report expected by mid- to late-January.

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