Author Archives: Fouad Egbaria

Cobalt and lithium have big roles in the burgeoning electric-vehicle market, but they’re still subject to price volatility. scharfsinn86/Adobe Stock

This morning in metals news, demand for cobalt and lithium will only grow with the electric car industry, but price ups and downs are likely in the offing, too; London copper took a dip after the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike announcement Wednesday; and the U.S. coal industry, in a world with less demand for coal as an energy product, might have to get creative. One writer suggests mining for coal — not for coal itself, but for rare-earth metals contained within it.

Cobalt, lithium markets growing with EVs, but could see fluctuation

One thing is certain: the electric-car industry is growing rapidly.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

According to a Reuters story Thursday by Andy Home, the number of electric cars on roads worldwide doubled last year to 2 million — but only accounted for 0.2% of the global total. However, estimates indicate that number will grow to 3% as soon as 2021 and 14% in 2025.

With that growth comes a need for certain kinds of metals, like cobalt and lithium.

But with a still relatively young electric-vehicle industry, what will demand for these metals look like in the near future?

Cobalt and lithium, for example, are on the “front-line” of the “green transport revolution, Home writes. But that means, to an extent, being subject to the whims of an industry in its early stages.

Large price hikes in lithium late last year and early this year have leveled off. Home added there could be further price volatility, as producers, analysts and traders try to construct consensus demand models.

Copper falls to one-week low

Copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped to a one-week low Thursday, on the heels of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates for the second time this year, Reuters reported.

Copper fell to $5,462 per ton, according to the report.

Financial uncertainty in the U.S. and a slowing of the Chinese economy will put selling pressure on metals, according to a Kingdom Futures report quoted by Reuters.

Coal industry mining for … rare earths

Global coal production has declined each of the last three years. With a decline in demand, coal-mining operations have to adapt to a world increasingly powered by green energy.

The solution for some might be mining for coal, not for coal’s energy-producing properties, but for the rare-earth metals found within them, according to an article Thursday in Quartz. Per the article, China currently produces 90% of the world’s rare-earth metals.

It’s an interesting idea, even if author Akshat Rathi writes that his three ideas for extraction of rare-earth metals from coal are currently not economically feasible.

Free Download: The June 2017 MMI Report

But, as mentioned in yesterday’s This Morning in Metals post, producers have to adapt with the times. Whether we’re talking about copper producers looking for new markets for their copper or coal-mining operations mining for rare-earth metals found within coal, producers have to adjust or risk being left behind.

The market for biomedical metals — like the ones used in orthopedic implants — is expected to reach $34.9 billion by 2025, according to a recent market research report. Sandor Kacso/Adobe Stock

This morning in metals news, a recent report predicts the global biomedical metal market will reach $34.9 billion by 2025, palladium continues to stand strong and metal makers are looking for new markets for their products.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Market for Biomedical Metals to Only Get Bigger

The market for biomedical metals is large — to put a number on it, it is expected to be valued at $34.9 million by 2025, according to a recent report from Accuray Research LLP.

According to the report, the biomedical metal market is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 7.8% over the next decade.

Among the factors underpinning the expected growth are: increased demand for orthopedic implants; new developments in titanium-based alloys; and recent technical developments in biomedical metal.

Palladium Defies Analysts’ Expectations on Strong Run

At around $900 per ounce, palladium is trading at 16-year highs, according to a Platts report.

Analysts told Platts they saw no justification for palladium’s strength, especially considering a struggling Chinese automotive market (palladium is an important autocatalyst ingredient in gas-powered engines).

One Japanese analyst told Platts the current state of the palladium market was a “once every decade” situation.

Is a reversal in palladium prices on the way? Only time will tell.

New Markets for Metals

According to an article Wednesday in Bloomberg, makers of metals are looking for new commercial uses for their products, particularly as a boom in Chinese demand for raw materials has tempered. In general, China’s intent to crack down on credit — particularly on the heels of May’s Moody’s downgrade — has led many to believe a negative impact for metals markets will follow.

To make up for the loss of Chinese demand, producers of metals are looking for new markets for their products.

What uses do producers have in mind?

According to Bloomberg, a few uses include fertilizer, salmon cages, electric-car batteries and household cleaning products, among others.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

Many expect growth to slow in China through the remainder of the year. As such, producers will have to get creative in finding new uses for their products, from cars to fertilizer and everything in between.

Our June MMI Report is in the books, and there’s a lot to unpack.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Out of 10 MMI sub-indexes, four posted no movement from our May MMIs. That wasn’t true for all, though, as the report shows promising signs for construction (compared with last year). Like the Construction MMI, growth in the automotive sector slowed a bit, but still performed better than at the same time last year.

In terms of policy, several things happening around the world will have macroscopic effects on these industries.

Domestically, the Trump administration’s ongoing Section 232 investigation into steel imports will have ripple effects at home and abroad (namely in the Chinese steel market).

In the U.K., the recent shocker of a parliamentary election leaves question marks regarding the way forward — is it going to be a “hard” or “soft” Brexit? Does Theresa May have the political capital to make a hard Brexit happen? It seems unlikely now, but that situation continues to develop. In terms of business and metal markets, whichever iteration of Brexit takes hold will have effects on the ways in which British companies do business with Europe.

In China, many analysts expect growth to slow in the second half of 2017 as the government aims to put the squeeze on credit growth. (Moody’s recently downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time since 1989.)

While several MMI sub-indexes did not go up or down this past month, there was still quite a bit going on in each sector. You can fill yourself in by downloading our June MMI Report, which offers all of the storylines and trends for our 10 MMI sub-indexes, presented in one convenient place.

TTstudio/Adobe Stock

This morning in metals news, copper slipped from its two-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME), Canadian researchers have discovered a way to make metals processing greener and nickel hits its lowest price in a year.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Copper Falls in Anticipation of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Copper fell from a two-month high on the LME — and dropped 1.1% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange — ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision this week regarding raising the interest rate (which many expect it to do), Reuters reported.

The decision is scheduled to be announced Wednesday afternoon, after the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting.

An uptick in the interest rate is expected to shore up the dollar, making dollar-based commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and leading to a dip in demand, Reuters reported.

Researchers Announce Environmentally Friendlier Way to Process Metals

A Canadian team of researchers recently announced a new method for processing metals without toxic chemicals or reagents, Science Daily reported.

The team outlined its approach in a recently published article in Science Advances. Through their method, the scientists seek to perfect a process that curbs the negative environmental impacts of processing metals, using easily recyclable compounds instead of toxic materials.

The discovery was the result of a collaboration between Jean-Philip Lumb and Tomislav Friscic at McGill University in Montreal, and Kim Baines of Western University in London, Ont.

As demand for electric vehicles grows and green initiatives become more visible, it’s not surprising to see movement toward making the entire production process going green — for example, from the processing of raw metals all the way to a final product itself (a “green” vehicle).

Nickel Falls to One-Year Low

It isn’t a good time for nickel, which fell to its lowest price in a year Tuesday in a climate of falling Chinese steel prices and a weak forecast for the Chinese economy, Reuters reported.

As the Chinese government tackles credit debts — the nation was recently downgraded by rating agency Moody’s for the first time since 1989 — many expect growth to slow in the second half of the year. That prediction has already been borne out by weak April and May Chinese economic data, according to the article.

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, told Reuters that China’s efforts to rein in credit growth and curb excessive behavior on the property market is “bad news” for metals.

Free Download: The May 2017 MMI Report

illustrez-vous/Adobe Stock

This morning in metals news, a French bank has sued a metals broker for $32 million over alleged fraudulent receipts; aluminum, copper and lead take a fall in India; and copper hit a five-week high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) as a result of constrained supply from Chile and strong demand in China.

Alleged Fraudulent Receipts at Heart of French Lawsuit

French bank Natixis has filed a lawsuit against metals broker Marex Spectron over alleged fraudulent receipts, Reuters reports.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

According to a court filing, the $32 million lawsuit is over fraudulent receipts for nickel stored at warehouses in Asia run by a unit of commodities giant Glencore, Reuters reported.

Marex Spectron contested the claim in a statement. Natixis seeks damages because it alleges it provided finance based on fake receipts in a deal arranged by Marex Spectron.

Base Metals Take a Tumble in India

A trio of metals took a fall as a result of “muted demand,” according to the Economic Times.

Aluminum, copper and lead fell in India as a result of speculators offloading positions, according to analysts in the Economic Times report.

Copper Prices Move Up on LME

While copper was down in India, prices were up elsewhere, according to Reuters.

According to the report, copper hit a five-week high on the LME, “helped by concerns over supply from Chile, recent data pointing to robust import demand in China and falling stocks of the metal.”

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit its highest price since early May.

Free Download: The May 2017 MMI Report

Qatar is a major supplier of liquefied natural gas. donvictori0/Adobe Stock

Editor’s Note: This is the second part of Stuart Burns’ analysis of last week’s decision by several Arab nations to break ties with Qatar. On Friday, Burns covered the political backdrop. 

Qatar may well be asking: why now?

The country has been engaged in such activity (as detailed Friday) for a decade or more, but the young Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s Crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, seem to have found common ground to take Middle East politics into their own hands and mold the region the way they would like to see it.

It would seem they are not above fabricating their own fake news to achieve it, either. For example, Qatar’s Emir Tamim is reported to have said that Hamas is “the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people,” and called Iran “a big power in the stabilization of the region.”

But attendees at the speech reported he said no such thing. Shortly afterward, it was discovered the Qatar News Agency (QNA) website had been hacked into and the stories inserted.

The timing of the diplomatic freeze is also relevant.

Just two weeks after President Donald Trump’s visit, you have to think this was discussed and approval was sought for U.S. backing, at least politically, for such a dramatic move. It should not be forgotten that the U.S. has a major intelligence-gathering military base in Qatar, the Al Udeid Air Base on Qatari soil is a pivotal staging ground for U.S. counterterror operations, the Washington Post states.

In a more recent development, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Friday made a call for de-escalation, asking the Saudi-led coalition to ease its blockade of Qatar on the grounds that it is creating food shortages and making the fight against ISIS more difficult, according to Bloomberg.

The alliance is trying to pull Qatar into line with the position taken by the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council — aligning against Iran and backing away from supporting terrorist sympathizers. In that they are to be applauded, but the risk is the situation gets out of control. One must assume closed-door discussion has not worked and the GCC coalition is taking this more extreme step to shock Qatar into compliance. The danger is it could also drive Qatar further into the arms of the Iranians, further polarizing the region’s political blocs.

Not surprisingly, the move caused a jump in the oil price and jitters in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, in which Qatar plays an outsize role as a major supplier to Europe and Asia. Oil prices immediately jumped but then fell back, as it became clear Qatar’s 30,000 barrels a day were unlikely to have any impact of global supply.

Of more concern, however, was LNG.

Qatar supplies a third of the U.K.’s consumption and is the world’s largest exporter of LNG.

Qatari production of aluminum — at 610,000 tons per annum, in a 50:50 joint venture with Norsk Hydro — represents less than 1% of the global market Prices have been unaffected by the news of the GCC blockade.

In the short term, exports may be disrupted because cargoes were transhipped in neighbouring UAE onto larger vessels. However, Qatalum (the joint venture between Qatar Petroleum and Norsk Hydro) says it can ship directly from its own ports, if necessary.

Kagenmi/Adobe Stock

It was a busy week in the world. On Thursday alone there were elections in the U.K. (which resulted in a hung parliament) and former FBI Director James Comey testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Before we head into the weekend, let’s look back at the top storylines in metals news on MetalMiner this week:

Climate of Corruption Tempers Comeback Optimism in Brazil

Speaking of politics, our Stuart Burns wrote about Brazil and its efforts to push its way out of the doldrums of a recession, while also struggling with the specter of corruption.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

One year after former President Dilma Rousseff was impeached, her successor, Michel Temer, is facing questions about corruption. The BBC reported Thursday Brazilian judges have chosen to delay voting on a case that could in fact send Temer packing (an outcome which would continue a period of presidential instability in Brazil).

Read more

After a 17-point leap in our Renewables MMI from April to May, the sub-index — which tracks metals and materials going into the renewable energy industry — posted no movement for our June reading, standing at 71.

(A quick note: Last month, the sub-index rose to 71 after a recalibration of our index to better account for cobalt price fluctuations.)

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

But that doesn’t mean there were not big swings within the sector — far from it.

Read more

TTstudio/Adobe Stock

This morning in metals news, copper prices made a bit of a comeback on Thursday, gold neared a 2017 high and a Japanese steel plate manufacturer is asking the U.S. Court of International Trade to reconsider the scope of anti-dumping and countervailing duties with respect to tool steel.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Copper Bounces Back

After a downward trend for copper, the metal showed signs of recovery on Thursday, according to a Reuters report.

Reports of strong imports and exports in China for May helped give copper a boost after a three-week low this week.

However, analysts indicated that upside for the metal is limited. Given analysts’  expectations of a Chinese growth slowdown in the second half of 2017, among other factors, it would not surprise to see copper experience setbacks throughout the remainder of the calendar year.

Read more

selensergen/Adobe Stock

Our Aluminum MMI sub-index has steadily climbed since a score of 79 to start the year. For our June reading, this sub-index checked in at 88, holding steady after an 88 reading in May.

Prior to May, the Aluminum MMI last hit or exceeded 88 in May 2015, when it checked in at 90.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

The major players in this sub-index, primary 3-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Chinese primary aluminum, posted price drops, by 1% and 1.6%, respectively. Chinese scrap also fell by a similar margin, dropping in price by 1.3%.

On the other hand, solid price jumps in other aluminum products leveled the balance for the month.

Chinese billet, for example, rose by 1.1%. On the LME, 5083 aluminum plate prices rose by a robust 6.3%.

Aluminum Around the World

In light of several Arab nations’ decision to sever diplomatic ties with Qatar — alleging that Qatar is financing terrorism in the region — aluminum exports from the small nation have been disrupted. According to Reuters, an aluminum plant partly owned by Norsk Hydro will have to seek alternate routes for aluminum exports from the country, due to air space restrictions imposed by Qatar’s neighbors.

Meanwhile, as Raul de Frutos wrote, there were high expectations for aluminum to start the year.

Goldman Sachs added to the hype by being particularly bullish about the metal, predicting LME primary three-month aluminum will hit $2,000/metric ton this year. For now, the market stepped back from that prediction after the 1% drop from the May to June readings.

Chinese supply-side reforms, namely cutting aluminum (among other metal) production to curb pollution, could have positive effects on prices — if they are implemented. Aluminum prices got a boost early this year when the Chinese government announced a proposal to curtail its output of aluminum and other metals.

On top of all that, President Donald Trump’s administration’s national security probe into metal imports continues to loom. The probe is ongoing; it is still unclear when it might conclude or what practical policy effects it might have.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

Actual Metal Prices

It was an up-and-down month across the board for the aluminum products in this index, as gains balanced drops. This is evidenced by the index holding fast at 88 for the second straight month.

Primary three-month aluminum on the LME dropped to $1,918/metric ton. The cash price for Chinese primary aluminum also dropped, falling to $2,003.26/metric ton. Chinese scrap fell to $1,1819.81/per metric ton.

On the other side of the ledger, Chinese billet prices rose to $2,108.92/metric ton. European aluminum plates, boasting a big gain, rose to $3,582.70/metric ton.

1 208 209 210 211