Author Archives: Taras Berezowsky

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

Here’s What Happened

  • MetalMiner’s Global Precious MMI, tracking a basket of precious metals from across the globe, cooled off considerably after a sharp rise last month. For October, the sub-index dropped 3.4% to hit 86. That’s nearly back to the August 2017 level.
  • Palladium held steady for a month, but still continues a measurable march upwards. The platinum group metal held above the $900 per ounce level for the second straight month.
  • Platinum did lose a bit of its luster, however, falling back toward the $900 per ounce level and receding from its most recent high of March 2017 (when it landed above $1,000 per ounce). What does that mean? Something quite historic (see the section below)
  • After breaking and holding above the $1,300 per ounce threshold at the beginning of September for the first time since October 2016, the U.S. gold price retraced its steps as well, diving back under that level for the beginning of October.

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • We have quite the record to report. ICYMI, my colleague Fouad Egbaria noted recently that the platinum-palladium relationship reached a milestone: “As of Oct. 1, palladium closed higher than platinum. The last time that happened? Sixteen years ago.”
  • According to a research note from commodities broker SP Angel quoted within a report by Kitco News, “Palladium is benefitting from its inclusion in catalytic converters in gasoline-powered vehicles, which is expecting robust growth from the shift from diesel engines following the 2015 Volkswagen emissions-rigging scandal, and hybrid electric vehicle demand.”

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • Other analysts have thoughts on platinum/palladium outlook as well. “In the short term, we think platinum is undervalued for a whole host of reasons. Therefore, we think there is scope for platinum to move back to a slight premium in the short to medium term,” Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale, was quoted as saying in the Kitco News report. “We don’t see a sustainable premium of palladium over platinum…until about 2020 or 2021.”
  • Overall, however, investors have been seeing nice returns, according to International Banker. The article notes a Reuters poll “of 26 analysts and traders conducted in July, [in which] the average palladium price for 2017 [was] being predicted at $811 per ounce for this year, which is 5 percent above the previous poll conducted in April…[and] the highest annual average price on record, going back three decades.” Well, now we’ve broken $900 per ounce.
  • That makes Standard Chartered rosy as well. “We remain constructive on palladium’s outlook,” according to the bank’s analyst, Suki Cooper. “Not only is the market set to deliver a deficit this year, but it looks set to be undersupplied over the coming years.”

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

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Standing in for Fouad Egbaria, here is your morning in metals, folks.

Aluminum Highlights

Feeling behind on aluminum industry activity and economic drivers? Look no further than the Aluminum Association’s latest comprehensive rundown, including import trends and key raw material inputs such as energy.

According to their highlights, the majority of aluminum imports into the U.S. are in ingot form. “After three consecutive months of declining volumes, ingot imports increased 1.8 percent month-over-month in July,” the report states, citing U.S. Census Bureau figures. “Nevertheless, imports of ingot increased 19.0 percent year-over-year in July, and are up 22.7 percent year-to-date over the same period in 2016. While the growth has occurred across the spectrum of ingot importing countries, the largest year-to-date increases have originated from South Africa, India, and Australia.”

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

EPA Clean Power Plan: Trump Takes Over Obama’s ‘Fuzzy Math’

President Trump made quick moves to ax the Clean Power Plan, whose benefits the previous administration said would dwarf its costs (of which, MetalMiner speculated, there would be many).

Now, Trump and his EPA chief, Scott Pruitt, are trying to massage the numbers behind those costs and benefits — and it may be a tough proposition to get things right.

Electric Cars All the Rage?

Arnoud Balhuizen, chief commercial officer at BHP, was quoted by Reuters as saying on Tuesday that 2017 will be a “tipping point” for electric cars, adding that “the impact for raw materials producers would be felt first in the metals markets and only later in oil,” according to the news service.

“In September 2016 we published a blog and we set the question – could 2017 be the year of the electric vehicle revolution?” Balhuizen said in an interview, Reuters reported.

Free Download: The September 2017 MMI Report

MetalMiner’s correspondent in India, Sohrab Darabshaw, will have an upcoming piece later this week about how that very revolution is shaping up in the world’s second-most populous country – stay tuned!

Here’s What Happened

  • MetalMiner’s Global Precious MMI, tracking a basket of precious metals from across the globe, tore itself away from a one-month downward trend to rise 4.7% for a reading of 89. That value was up from 85 at the beginning of August.
  • Palladium continues its steady yet undeniable march upward. The platinum-group metal (PGM) crushed it with yet another recent high, ending up above the $900 per ounce level as of Sept. 1. As of this writing, palladium is holding on to that increase, still hovering near that level.
  • Platinum is no slouch either, creeping upward even closer to its recent high of March 2017, when it landed above $1,000 per ounce.
  • The U.S. gold price broke — and held above — the $1,300 per ounce threshold at the beginning of the month for the first time since October 2016.

Two-Month Trial: Metal Buying Outlook

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you would’ve been hard-pressed to miss the hurricane and tropical storm news of the past couple weeks. No sooner did Hurricane Harvey slam into the Texas Gulf Coast region, Hurricane Irma made her way up into the center of Florida soon after.
  • Aside from natural disasters, other price drivers, such as political uncertainty surrounding North Korea and the U.S. Congress’ tussle over how to deal with the debt ceiling — and potential government shutdown — certainly have taken their toll on investor sentiment.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • How will the recent storm disasters affect precious metals prices? It could hit gold and silver refiners especially hard, as South Florida is home to one of the biggest precious refiners in the country and is also a hub for “assaying, refining, logistics and financing operations,” according to this article citing, ultimately, reporting done by the Miami Herald. If you’re in the market for those two metals, keeping an eye on the short-to-medium term aftermath of Hurricane Irma looks to be crucial.
  • As for the PGMs, platinum prices may turn around to the downside soon, if the recent outlook of the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) is to be believed. The WPIC foresees a stalling of supply out of South Africa for the balance of 2017, while demand will equally stall, according to the council. In terms of palladium’s future, analysts at Commerzbank told DigitalLook “the metal used by the auto industry in emissions-controlling catalytic converters was benefiting from strong Chinese car sales data but that sales there are likely to weaken.”
  • Of course, vehicle replacement in Texas and Florida post-hurricanes could do their part to support platinum and palladium prices. Be sure to check out how MetalMiner’s Automotive MMI fared.

Key Price Movers and Shakers

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Here’s What Happened

  • MetalMiner’s Global Precious MMI rose 2.4% to a value of 85, breaking into a new high for 2017.
  • Our sub-index tracking gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices from around the globe last hit this level in October 2016, when it reached a value of 86.
  • That makes two straight Augusts (2016 and 2017) of strong performance for precious metals. After a lackadaisical second half of 2015 and first half of 2016, the Global Precious MMI hit a scorching 89 in August 2016 — the index’s highest peak since February 2015.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • Since we tend to keep a closer eye on the platinum group metals (PGMs) due to their automotive applications, the U.S. platinum price tracked by the MetalMiner IndX ticked back up 2.3%, while the U.S. palladium price continued steamrolling, rising 3.4% on the month.
  • These PGM prices increases, in addition to marginal upticks for gold and silver in the U.S., are the main drivers of the index’s gain.
  • As we reported in June, platinum companies continue to battle for profitability — one such firm being South Africa’s Lonmin. After the company reopened shafts and expanded its biggest operation a couple months ago, it’s now planning to sell excess processing capacity “of up to 500,000 platinum ounces per year, to maximize cash from processing operations and preserve cash,” according to Reuters. The tough economic environment in South Africa, as well as inflationary pressures on platinum mining in general, are to blame.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • Certainly keep an eye on the global automotive sector, which has been motoring along lately in China especially, as the longer-term driver (HA!) here.
  • Certain rosy outlooks from firms such as Research and Markets indicate a bullishness that refuses to let up on the gas (it’s August, y’all, we’re getting those all out of our system before the fall revs up — see?!). According to my colleague Fouad Egbaria’s coverage, “advances in automobile technology and pharmaceutical applications will see a rise in demand for this subset of metals, according to the research report.”
  • The dog days of summer have shown life with a last gasp, perhaps setting the stage for a continued rise into autumn, especially if political turmoil gets any worse and any looming stock market corrections set the tone.

Free Sample Report: Our Annual Metal Buying Outlook

Key Price Movers and Shakers

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Here’s What Happened

    • MetalMiner’s Global Precious MMI took a bit of a dip this month, coming down 1.1% to 83.
    • The sub-index’s value held at 84 in June and May, but on balance, the price drops within the overall basket of metals couldn’t hold the ship steady into this post-Independence Day summer lull.
    • While our U.S. platinum bar price got very close to its 2017 start-of-the-month low (which it hit in January; more on platinum below), U.S. palladium rose 3.8% month-on-month to record its highest price in 34 months — nearly a 3-year high.

Benchmark Your Current Metal Price by Grade, Shape and Alloy: See How it Stacks Up

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • Diesel goin’ down? Due to negative sentiment after Dieselgate, as MetalMiner’s Editor at Large Stuart Burns pointed out recently, sales of diesel vehicles in some parts of Europe have taken a dive in the past few months over concerns that “authorities will raise costs or otherwise make living with diesel engines a less attractive proposition for owners.” Overall, total car sales have dropped in some European markets, including the U.K. — but in the spots where they haven’t, gas-powered vehicles have been winning over diesel. In short, not awesome for platinum prices.
  • BEVs are not the panacea. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could be the ticket … except that the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts BEVs to make up no more than 5% of the market by 2025, so that wouldn’t work either.
  • Of course, investor demand, jewelry demand and other industrial sectors, such as chemical, all play into it. But “platinum’s fortunes will in part ride on the coattails of the auto industry’s ability to re-establish the diesel engine as an environmentally acceptable propulsion unit,” according to Burns.
  • Meanwhile, as my colleague Fouad Egbaria reported yesterday, gold is now trading on the LME.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • The divergence between platinum and palladium prices of late certainly merits attention, and perhaps may drive industrial manufacturers to broader substitution efforts — but that could be a stretch. According to analysts cited by the Financial Times (paywall), “the divergence reflects a number of factors, including speculative demand and several years of production deficits that have eroded stockpiles and reduced available supplies.” The article goes on to say that longer term, “with the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, analysts say this year’s turbocharged run for palladium could be a last hurrah for the material, which has few industrial uses outside of the car industry.”
  • Last month, we wrote that “while we’re unsure of when prices will swing back up, mainly because output cuts in South Africa and elsewhere have seemingly not helped, it may be hard to discount current windows for smaller spot buys.” Fortunately for platinum spot-buyers, this still holds true.

Key Price Movers and Shakers

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Join MetalMiner‘s Lisa Reisman, Ecovadis‘ Daniel Perry and Jaggaer‘s Roger Blumberg as they share how to bolster your organization in these times of uncertainty in the following ways:

  • Quickly drawing up a model of a company’s parts and bill of materials to identify areas in need of support and glean insight into the negotiation process
  • Managing the lifecycle relationship of parts, products, and suppliers
  • Reducing risk and improve agility in the MRO supply chain while more reining in small dollar spend

And much more — Join us on June 27th at 12pm EDT/9am PDT for the FREE WEBINAR:

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MetalMiner just reported that the Trump administration, in its efforts to curb imports it maintains are harmful to U.S. industry, may just have injected more volatility into the landscape for domestic manufacturers.

The European Union is worried about a “trade policy readjustment” from President Trump’s team, which could evidently include tariffs placed on the bloc’s metals and materials imported into the U.S.

The Section 232 investigation has mainly put China and its imports into the crosshairs, but now the EU is concerned that these new tariffs would “unjustifiably hit” EU nations, according to Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner.

What does this mean for U.S. manufacturers — and will events such as this affect how you should be managing your organization’s (and your suppliers’) commodity risk?

Find Out in a Free Webinar Tomorrow

Join MetalMiner‘s Lisa Reisman, Ecovadis‘ Daniel Perry and Jaggaer‘s Roger Blumberg as they share how to bolster your organization in these times of uncertainty in the following ways:

  • Quickly drawing up a model of a company’s parts and bill of materials to identify areas in need of support and glean insight into the negotiation process
  • Managing the lifecycle relationship of parts, products, and suppliers
  • Reducing risk and improve agility in the MRO supply chain while more reining in small dollar spend

And much more — Join us on June 27th at 12pm EDT/9am PDT for the FREE WEBINAR:

 

2017 has seen no shortage of uncertainty when it comes to manufacturing policy.

For example, with the Section 232 investigation is in full swing, other issues remain on deck. From the Dodd-Frank conflict minerals rule getting repealed, to potential changes in visa requirements, the landscape is littered with unpredictable twists and turns.

That’s why getting smart on the following is crucial for your manufacturing organization — not just today, but well into the future:

  • Optimizing supplier management to accommodate new suppliers and streamline complex qualification processes such as PPAP, product testing, and more
  • Quickly drawing up a model of a company’s parts and bill of materials to identify areas in need of support and glean insight into the negotiation process
  • Managing the lifecycle relationship of parts, products, and suppliers
  • Leveraging best-in-class minerals traceability processes and programs to further enhance CSR initiatives
  • Reducing risk and improve agility in the MRO supply chain while more reining in small dollar spend

MetalMiner‘s Lisa Reisman, Ecovadis‘ Daniel Perry and Jaggaer‘s Roger Blumberg are set to share the tools for all of the above, to bolster your organization in these times of uncertainty.

Join us on June 27th at 12pm EDT/9am PDT for the FREE WEBINAR:

 

Here’s What Happened

  • All quiet on the precious-metals front this month, as our Global Precious Metals MMI held pat from May to June at a reading of 84.
  • Since we tend to keep a closer eye on the platinum group metals (PGMs) due to their automotive applications, the U.S. platinum price tracked by the MetalMiner IndX posted only a negligible gain, while the U.S. palladium price suffered only a negligible loss…reflected directly in the wash that was the sub-index’s June performance.
  • Interestingly, gold has been getting hot as of late. More on that below.

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • Although the Global Precious Metals MMI did not reflect it in the May-to-June time period, the U.S. gold price increase after June 1 has gotten some heads turning. As my colleague and new MetalMiner Editor Fouad Egbaria reported earlier this week, “gold neared its year-to-date high on Tuesday,” according to Reuters. “The rise comes in a climate of political uncertainty, with an election in the United Kingdom, former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday and a European Central Bank meeting this week,” Egbaria noted.
  • Back to platinum. As a reflection of the metal’s dawdling short-term pricing, South African producer Lonmin has been struggling, so much so that Reuters reported earlier this week that the company is “pulling every lever to try to restore confidence in its ailing business, including reopening a major shaft and expanding its biggest operation,” according to Lonmin’s CEO. Low prices and skyrocketing costs have reportedly conspired to present the company with a cash problem over the past near-decade.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • Platinum specifically has had a low-price problem this year — but that’s obviously less of a problem if you’re purchasing metal. While we’re unsure of when prices will swing back up, mainly because output cuts in South Africa and elsewhere have seemingly not helped, it may be hard to discount current windows for smaller spot buys.

Exact Prices of the Key Movers and Shakers

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Here’s What Happened

  • Our Rare Earths MMI, tracking 14 rare earth metal and mineral prices, ticked up to 21 for the June 1 reading, a whopping 10.5% increase from May.
  • We write “whopping” mainly because the Rare Earths MMI has held below the value threshold of 20 since August 2015 — a full 22 months ago. As we wrote last month, that’s when the stock market had its worst month in 5 years.
  • Rare earths prices on the whole, however, seem to be recovering from their 2016 lows. Terbium oxide, for example, rose 11.8% from May to June. Europium oxide, for its part, spiked up 16.7% in the same period.
  • Meanwhile, the dysprosium oxide price has fallen off slightly month-on-month.

What’s Going On in the Background?

  • “The REE mining process is intensive and requires highly toxic processing, which reduces competitiveness,” according to this article. “Because of lighter restrictions on mining and—especially—processing, China remains the world’s top supplier of rare earths.” But a considerable knock-on effect on rare earths prices could be the environmental pollution curbs that China has been (at least publicly) committing itself to as a developing economy. The environmental pressure has likely filtered down to the rare earths processing industry, constricting output enough to squeeze prices upward.
  • Outside China, these exact environmental worries have hamstrung any viable production models (or at the very least, profitable ones) — and Exhibit A is the Molycorp/Mountain Pass debacle. The Mountain Pass mine in California, which used to the the Western Hemisphere’s best bet to unburden its markets from reliance on Chinese REEs, is now being buffeted about by investors battling for the scraps.

What Metal Buyers Should Look Out For

  • While we’re by no means at a market top for the rare earths sector, keep a close eye on “hot” REEs such as dysprosium, as we mentioned last month. New ventures that are getting folks’ attention, such as this one in Australia, are creating a lot of bullish narratives. As we mentioned before, however, in the short term, dysprosium does not look as strong as some of the other constituent metals and minerals, dropping in price between May 1 to June 1.

Key Price Movers and Shakers

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