You could be excused for thinking gold has been eclipsed this year — bought in record amounts by central banks in the first half of this year — as the price rose strongly through the late summer but has since drifted off.
A recent report suggests, at least for some investors, gold has been sidelined in favor of a metal with stronger industrial applications, in addition to demand for jewelry and as an investment product.
In the World Platinum Investment Council’s (WPIC) latest Platinum Quarterly report, the WPIC states that from a surplus of 345,000 ounces for 2019, investment demand in particular has been so strong that platinum is estimated to come out with a deficit of 30,000 ounces for the full year.
A 12% increase in total demand has been driven by a substantial surge in ETF buying, such that overall consumption is still up despite a 5% fall in automotive demand, a 6% fall in jewelry and a 1% fall in industrial demand.
ETF buying was particularly strong in the first half of 2019, the WIPC reports, but has carried on into the second half with the increase in holdings of nearly 1 million ounces. Much of the buying has been by large institutional investors looking to diversify from negative yielding debt equity increasing their holdings of gold and platinum. Such buyers typically work on a two- to three-year timeframe and, as such, are judging platinum has medium-term strength (despite weaker automotive demand).
Automakers have seen a collapse in diesel car sales, particularly in Europe (diesel cars’ top market). As a result, platinum has and will continue to suffer.
Palladium, on the other hand, is more efficient for petrol engine catalytic converters and has, as a result, done relatively well out of the swing in engine type demand. But at some price point, generally taken when palladium is double that of platinum, the latter can be used in place of palladium – its relative lack of efficiency meaning you have to use more platinum to achieve the same level of gas detoxification as you do with palladium.
Platinum demand has been strong but prices have not fared as well as the other PGMs, such as palladium and rhodium, which have relatively done much better.
Even the upbeat WPIC recognizes the platinum market will be in surplus next year and above-ground inventory is expected to rise as a result of lower investment demand.
In the near term, that may mean there is a cap to prices at least in 2020, but clearly investors are betting on an upturn in the first few years of the next decade.