Ferrous Scrap Price Forecast: Turkish, Asian Markets in the Doldrums

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The ferrous scrap market has been a reflection of the finished steel market this quarter – at least in Europe and Southeast Asia, according to Delphica, a Ukrainian steel market analytics firm.

A recent report advised the market as being characterized by poor buyer interest in light of weak finished steel demand and ample supplies, in spite of a temporary stoppage on Ukrainian exports.

In Europe, the largest import market for ferrous scrap, Turkey, has recently placed an order for a 20,000-ton US delivery of HMS 1 & 2 (80:20) and Shredded with the HMS priced at US $401/metric ton CIF, in line with the last month’s prices that have hovered a few dollars either side of US $400/ton for  HMS 1 & 2 mixed cargoes.

In Asia, South Korea has imported more in February than January, 811,000 tons against 666,000 tons, but even so, prices have remained under pressure with HMS 1 quoted at US $420/ton and HMS 1&2 mixed at $380-390/ton.

However, buyers are few and far between in March with the expectation that prices will fall some $10-15/ton.

Delphica goes as far as giving a prediction for prices over the next couple of months for the Turkish market (the destination of a significant quantity of US exports) as below.

Ferrous Scrap Price Forecast

Lower Turkish prices may dissuade US exporters from exporting for a few months and improve availability of domestic supply, particularly if the US dollar strengthens on continued European market uncertainty.

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