MetalMiner Aluminum Price Forecast Suggests Alcoa Won't Be Happy

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With the exception of Chinese aluminum bar, all metals that make up the monthly Aluminum MMI® fell, causing the price index to drop:

aluminum price

Yet at 90, aluminum serves as the “star performer” for the index series. Only Automotive and GOES MMIs performed better, because now most of the metals indexes have fallen below 90 (and some have fallen below 80).

Compare with last month’s trends – here’s our free June MMI® Report.

Nevertheless, the fundamentals of the aluminum market remain subject to the rest of the news impacting commodity markets, including slower Chinese growth, slower European growth, exchange rates and announcements made by the US Federal Reserve.

MetalMiner’s own internal aluminum forecasting models suggest further price weakness, despite many primary smelters now operating at or near their break-even.

Get in touch with us if you’d like to more about MetalMiner’s aluminum forecasting capability:

Alcoa’s second quarter earnings announcement comes out next Monday, July 8. Market watchers should pay heed for clues on demand signals. But with a sluggish manufacturing PMI and poor MMI performance across the board, we don’t expect any sudden aluminum price surge.

What were the primary aluminum price index drivers?

today's metal prices - MetalMiner IndXAfter rising the previous month, Chinese aluminum scrap prices dropped 7.3 percent. On the LME, the cash price of primary aluminum fell 6.7 percent over the past month to $1,731 per metric ton. The LME 3-month price of aluminum fell 6.0 percent to $1,776 per metric ton.

Chinese aluminum billet prices fell 5.1 percent after rising the previous month. European 1050 aluminum prices dropped by 4.1 percent this month. After rising the previous month, European 5083 plate prices dropped 3.8 percent. Chinese aluminum primary prices fell 2.8 percent after rising the previous month. After rising the previous month, Indian aluminum primary prices dropped 0.4 percent.

Korean 3003 coil premium over 1050 sheet held pat last month. Korean 5052 coil premium over 1050 sheet experienced a flat month also. Chinese aluminum bar remained unchanged. The price of Korean 1050 aluminum sheet held steady.

Don’t forget to see June 2013 price trends before July’s report comes out next week.

The Aluminum MMI® collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Aluminum MMI®, how it’s calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.