Could Some Forms of Steel Be on the Brink of a Bullish Run?

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HRC and HDG prices seem to have recovered a bit since the start of the month. CRC price increases appear less sharp, but may follow suit.

U.S. HRC and CRC prices. Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

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Some steel forms have increased such as CRC and HDG for three consecutive weeks. If the price increases continue at this pace, prices could breach previous levels, which may signal strength and the start of a rally.

Chinese Steel Prices

Chinese steel prices drive U.S. domestic prices. Both usually tend to follow a similar pattern, which means that when Chinese steel prices increase, we would expect a similar movement in U.S. prices.

Despite the Chinese steel price’s cooldown during the last quarter of the year, a new sharp uptrend appears to have started this month.

China HRC and CRC prices. Source: MetalMiner data from MetalMiner IndX(™)

Increasing Chinese prices add strength to the bullish case for steel. Buying organizations may want to follow Chinese prices closely, as they seem to have recovered.

Let’s Remember the Bullish Case

MetalMiner has watched steel prices closely since commodities and industrial metals turned bullish in August 2017.

Although base metals and steel do not necessarily trade in the same direction at the same time, industrial metals do tend to move together. December began with a stronger U.S. dollar caused by expectations of the Congress passing a tax bill. A stronger U.S. dollar caused commodities to fall slightly. However, this commodity downtrend appears short term, as the bullish case remains supported.

What This Means for Industrial Buyers

Buying organizations may want to closely follow both domestic steel prices and Chinese steel prices. Now that the bullish case appears more probable, steel-buying organizations may want to readjust their purchasing strategies.

MetalMiner sends automatic notifications when buying signals trigger a change in purchasing behavior.

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