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A recent Bloomberg article suggested that although tin prices are currently strong they are expected to come off in the short term due to slowing domestic Chinese demand. The same article states half the tin  consumed in China is used in electronics soldering, a previously robust area of value add growth for Chinese companies. But a combination of rising wages costs, softening demand due to lower exports to the west and the appreciating RMB have significantly reduced growth prospects. China’s quarterly trade surplus shrank for the first time in more than three years from January to March due to falling exports. Many small electronics factories in the southern province of Guangdong were being closed after China’s new labor laws mandating minimum wages and setting limits on over time raised production costs.

China’s domestic tin prices are starting to drop lower than world prices as demand softens and rising production pushes the market into over supply. Although China became a net importer of tin this year, following the imposition of a 10% export tax this January, higher export prices could over come this and encourage exports again. Many say the retreat of China as a major exporter is the primary reason for the current high world prices.

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